Achi news desk-
The 2024 federal budget failed to spark a much-needed rebound in the polls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, according to a new Ipsos poll released Tuesday.
Canada’s response to the Liberal government’s latest spending plans shows a historic challenge before the governing party as it tries to keep the reins of government out of the hands of the Conservative party in the next election, according to one poll.
“If the purpose of the budget was to have a political reboot, it didn’t seem to be happening,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs.
A symbolic ‘Shrug’ for Budget 2024
The 2024 federal budget presented last week included billions of dollars in new spending aimed at improving “generational equity” and quickly filling Canada’s housing supply gap.
An Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News shows that voter reactions to the 2024 federal budget range mostly from lackluster to largely negative.
After removing those who said they “don’t know” how they feel about the federal budget (28 per cent), only 17 per cent of Canadians were asked about the spending plan in the two days after it released which they said they would give. “two thumbs up.” Around 40 per cent, meanwhile, said they would give it “two thumbs down” and the rest (43 per cent) gave Budget 2024 a symbolic “shrug”.
An Ipsos poll shows that few Canadians give Budget 2024 a “two thumbs up”.
Ipsos / Global News
“Thumbs down” responses rose to 63 percent among Alberta respondents and 55 percent among those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Around 10 per cent of respondents said the budget would help them personally, while 37 per cent said it would hurt, after removing those who said they did not know what the impact would be again.
When asked how they would vote if a federal election were held today, 43 per cent of respondents said they would vote Conservative, 24 per cent said they would vote Liberal, followed by 19 per cent cent who would lean on NDP.
The Conservative leader is up one point from a month earlier, Bricker points out, suggesting Budget 2024 has failed to stop the bleeding for the incumbent Liberals.
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Just eight per cent of respondents to the Ipsos poll said the budget made them more likely to vote Liberal at the next election, while around a third (34 per cent) said it made them less likely likely
“Canadians’ initial impressions are that it hasn’t made much of a difference,” Bricker said.
Sentiment towards the Liberals remains slightly higher among generation Z and millennial voters – the demographic that appeared to be the focus of Budget 2024 – but Bricker says views remain “overwhelmingly negative” across generational lines.
Going into the 2024 budget, the Liberals were under pressure to improve affordability in Canada amid rising living costs and an unaffordable housing market, an Ipsos poll conducted last month showed.
The spending plan included items to remove junk fees from banking services and concert tickets, as well as some items aimed at making it easier for first-time home buyers to break into the housing market. It also included a proposed change to how some capital gains are taxed, which the Liberals have claimed would target the wealthiest Canadians.
Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze, told Global News after the release of the federal budget that while he was heartened by acknowledgments of the economic inequity facing younger demographics, there is no quick fix for the affordability crisis in the housing market.
A steep hill for Liberals to climb
Trudeau, his cabinet ministers and Liberal MPs have hit the road before and after releasing the budget to promote line items in the spending plan.
Bricker says it’s the typical post-budget playbook, but so far it looks like nothing has “really caught on with Canadians” in the early days after the plans were released expenditure. The Liberals have a chance to make something happen down the road, he said, but “it doesn’t look great.”
“Perhaps in the next year, they will be able to show that they have really changed something,” he said.
Bricker points out, however, that public opinion has changed little in federal politics over the past year.
The next federal election is set for October 2025 at the latest, but could be called earlier if the Liberals fail a confidence vote or bring down the government themselves.
But today’s vote would see the Liberals likely to lose to “a very, very large majority of the Conservative party,” Bricker said.
“What we are seeing is that if things continue as they have been going on over the last year, they will end up in a situation where, almost historically low in terms of the number of seats ,” he said. saying.
The Conservatives lead in every region of the country, except Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois holds the pole position, according to the Ipsos poll.
Meanwhile the Liberals face “a solid wall of public disapproval,” Bricker said. Around 32 per cent of voters said they would never consider voting Liberal in the next election, which is higher than the 27 per cent who said the same about the Conservatives, according to Ipsos.
Typically, Bricker says an incumbent party can hold a lead in some demographic, age group or region and build a strategy for re-election from there.
But this Liberal party has no foothold in the electorate, making prospects look grim in the next federal election; it is so bleak that it even evokes the historic rout of the Progressive Conservative Party in the 1993 vote.
“The hill they have to climb is incredibly hard,” Bricker said.
“I haven’t seen such a high hill to climb in federal politics since Brian Mulroney faced a very similar situation back in 1991 and ’92. And we all know what happened with that.”
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between 17 and 18 April 2024, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and over were interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were used to ensure that the composition of the sample reflected the composition of the Canadian population according to the census parameters. The accuracy of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, if all Canadians aged 18 and over had been surveyed. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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