Achi news desk-
Unless the polls change and change quite a bit, Rishi Sunak knows that his remaining time as Prime Minister may be over.
But he is the initiator of a smoking program with significant cross-party political support that seems likely to herald significant social change.
And cross-party support suggests an idea with greater political longevity than it had, as Labor will not scrap it if they win the election.
In other words, whatever happens, this is what some politicians call a legacy.
As I wrote here when Mr Sonak first announced his plans last autumn – in what he described at the time as “the biggest public health intervention in a generation” – this is a government seeking to drive, or elbow, social change along: the imminent end of smoking.
On Tuesday, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said she hoped creating a smoke-free generation would “save thousands of young people from addiction and early death, as well as saving our NHS billions of pounds”.
What was once mainstream is now marginal. Now the attempt is almost to eradicate it, over time.
This is not the end of this debate: what we have seen so far are the early stages of Parliament. There is still time before it becomes law.
So that’s the big picture, potential social change stuff. What about politics?
Almost 60 Conservative MPs voted against Mr Sonak’s idea.
Yes, they had a free vote – they weren’t told how to vote – but they defied him anyway. Cabinet Minister Kami Bedanuch is among them.
Another 100 people avoided. Cabinet Minister Penny Mordaunt is among them.
A source close to Ms. Mordaunt told me she abstained because “she doesn’t support the bill. She has a lot of objections to it. The practicality of it. Its implementation and enforcement. But being a serving government minister, she thought that voting against it would look more confrontational and positive than abstaining would.” .
Who can this be a dig at? Ah, get up in Danoch.
And what do Mrs. Mordaunt and Mrs. Badenoch have in common? A splash of ambition.
Both were talked about by some as future Conservative leaders.
Read more about the smoking ban
When you look at the numbers, almost half of Conservative MPs have not been able to bring themselves to endorse one of their leader’s flagship ideas in the past six months.
Which tells you something about the fragile nature of the Conservative Parliamentary Party, though not much that wasn’t quite obvious to the regular observer already.
Labor are already happily talking about how it’s a good job they backed the idea, otherwise Mr Sonke would have lost.
And they are also publicly pondering what these naysayers might do once the opportunity arises to change their minds, to run to corrections.
But then again they will be defeated if those in favor continue to support the plan as it is.
When governments manage to cling to a plan that matches society’s starting point, the force of law can push it deeply, and probably permanently.
This idea – for now at least – looks like it might be one of those.
And for all his political troubles, Mr. Sunak is its author.
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