Achi news desk-
Given that this is up 43% compared to the same period in 2019 – and preceded by a more or less constant decline for the 20 years before that – the assumption is that we are seeing the legacy of the pandemic suck literally. life out of the workforce.
But what’s to blame: prolonged Covid, declining mental health, growing NHS waiting lists – all of the above?
Within days, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was pointing the finger at something else – “Britain’s sick note” – as he unveiled plans on April 19 for a crackdown on sickness and disability benefits and the “over-medicalisation of the challenges and concerns of every life day”.
So what’s really going on?
Even before the pandemic, Britain had a higher percentage of economic inactivity among its working-age adults due to ill health than many EU nations, including Germany, France and Italy.
This reflects our generally higher levels of chronic illness – diabetes, obesity, heart and lung conditions, stroke and so on – compared to our European neighbours.
What is more alarming for economists and politicians, however, is that the UK remains the only G7 country where the workforce has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Overall labor market inactivity (for any reason, not just illness) was 1.1% higher at the end of 2023 in Britain compared to the same period in 2019, while the US, Canada, Japan, France, Italy and the whole of Germany has experienced reductions in the number of people not working – ranging from 0.4% to 1.8%.
It is difficult to measure the exact role of prolonged Covid.
By the time the Office for National Statistics stopped its surveillance of the condition, in March 2023, an estimated 1.9 million people were self-reporting symptoms that had persisted for more than four weeks, including 381,000 whose ability to complete day by day for them. – daytime activities had been “very limited”.
However, the total number of people living with prolonged Covid appeared to be declining at that time – down 18% compared to August-September 2022 – in a sign that the number of people recovering may have been more than new cases.
This would fit with evidence that vaccinations help protect against prolonged Covid and that the incidence rate is lower with the Omicron strain.
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On the other hand, the majority of healthy adults under the age of 50 will not have had a Covid booster jag since 2021 and there are cases of people developing prolonged Covid after a third or fourth infection, having previously recovered normally.
The sheer transmissibility of Omicron combined with the lack of mitigation also means that it causes far more infections than the Delta or Alpha strains ever did.
The lack of continuous surveillance for long Covid leaves us more or less in the dark about its current prevalence.
Of course, not everyone with prolonged Covid leaves the labor market.
Back in November 2022 – giving evidence to Holyrood’s health committee – David Freeman, head of labor market statistics at the ONS, noted that people with prolonged Covid accounted for 5% of the economically inactive population compared to 3.3% of those in work and 3.5% of the unemployed (unemployed but looking for a job).
Worsening NHS waiting list backlogs are likely to be a major contributor, and one that (unlike prolonged Covid) has disproportionately affected Britain compared to other EU and G7 nations.
The UK entered the pandemic with much less spare capacity than neighboring health systems, which meant that it cut back on elective activity much steeper.
According to the OECD, the number of hip replacement operations carried out by the NHS in 2020 compared to 2019 fell by a huge 46% against a decrease of 19% in Ireland, 12% in France, and 6.5% in Germany.
Meanwhile, knee replacements on the NHS plunged by more than 67% at the height of the pandemic compared to 25% in Sweden and 6% in Denmark.
This has left the NHS with a lot more catching up to do.
Statistics available for NHS Scotland show that more than 155,000 people are waiting for inpatient or day case treatment by the end of 2023, up from just under 80,000 in December 2019.
The number who had been waiting over a year has gone from just over 2000 to almost 42,000 over the same period.
What is less clear from the figures is how many of these patients are of working age.
Separate data from the Private Healthcare Information Network (PHIN) shows that people in their 50s accounted for the majority of treatments carried out in private hospitals last year, perhaps indicating higher motivation among the group this age to pay to relieve pain and disability rather than lose them. income in total.
However, younger people are also dropping out.
Research earlier this year by the Resolution Foundation found that 5% of adults in their 20s were economically inactive last year due to ill health – more than those in their early 40s.
Poor mental health was blamed, although disability benefits paid to those aged 16 to 25 are mainly for autism, ADHD, and learning disabilities, rather than conditions such as depression or anxiety.
Overall, the number of people on disability benefits in the UK has risen from 1.8 million in 2010 to 2.3m in 2020, before rising sharply to 3.3m by 2024.
The majority of claimants (40%) have mental and behavioral disorders.
This is the population the UK Government wants to throw back into work with tougher eligibility and sanctions.
Critics suggest that we might do better to invest in getting people healthy rather than punishing them for being sick.
Helen Barnard, director of policy at the Trussell Trust, told the Financial Times that more disabled people are turning to its food banks because they can’t afford essentials – even the bus fare to get to hospital appointments.
“We need a social security system that allows you to recover,” he added.
