Achi news desk-
The figures show that net immigration in 2023-2024 is well above the government’s projected figure, with further policy tightening. Dr. Abul Rizvi reports.
Net permanent and long-term movements (NPLT) in February 2024 were 105,460, almost 20,000 higher than in February 2023. At 363,550, NPLT movements for the eight months to February 2024 are already higher than NPLT movements for all of 2022-23 (see Table 1).
But what does this say about the government’s 2023-24 net migration forecast of 375,000?
The higher NPLT movements in 2023-24 do not necessarily mean that net migration in 2023-24 will be higher than in 2022-23. This will depend on the rate at which NPLTs stay in Australia for more than 12 months out of 16 months than normal and the extent to which short-term entries extend the stay to more than 12 months out of 16 months.
Before the pandemic, NPLT movements were traditionally higher than net migration. This was mainly due to NPLT arrivals changing their immigration or long-term stay intentions and leaving Australia for the long term at a relatively high rate.
The opposite has been the case since the pandemic and was certainly the case in 2022-23, where many more short-term arrivals extended their stay to more than 12 months. But this does not necessarily mean that this will be the case in 2023-24 as well.
Let’s look at the main categories of movement (short term and long term) to see what they might tell us.
students
There has been a significant tightening of the student visa policy from July 2023, but the impact of this necessarily takes time to manifest itself in the student movement data.
Net student movements in February 2024 were revised down by about 5,000 (but were still at record levels). Net student movements in March 2024 were almost 25,000 fewer than in March 2023, due to both lower arrivals and higher departures. We also know that overseas student applications and grants fell sharply in February 2024 compared to February 2023. There was further tightening of student visa policies in March 2024, which should lead to a further weakening of overseas student applications and grants.
The student contribution to net immigration is undoubtedly turning from the records set in 2023. At this point it has not decreased as the government expected it to. While net student movements in 2023-24 are expected to be less than in 2022-23 (see Table 2), this does not guarantee that the student contribution to net migration in 2023-24 will be less than in 2022-23.
The very strong student contribution to net migration in the September quarter of 2023 will continue to ensure that the student contribution to net migration in 2023-24 remains high.
other categories
The strong NPLT movements in 2023-24 to date are also expected to be the result of other subgroups. While details on NPLT movements are not available, it is useful to look at total net movements (short-term and long-term) for the various subgroups, as this data is available.
Key subgroups include:
- Net movement of Australian citizens (short-term and long-term) in the nine months to the end of March 2024 was a positive 271,280 compared to a positive 108,400 in the corresponding period in 2022-23. A large net inflow of Australian citizens will be needed over the next three months if net migration is to decline as the government expects a large negative contribution to net migration from Australian citizens.
- Net movement of New Zealand citizens in the nine months to the end of March 2024 was a positive 25,310 compared to 20,180 in the same period in 2022-23. The policy change providing a direct pathway to Australian citizenship for New Zealand citizens, coupled with a relatively stronger Australian labor market, continues to attract New Zealand citizens to Australia.
- Net movement of permanent visa holders in the nine months to the end of March 2024 was a positive 47,930 compared to a positive 42,940 in the corresponding period in 2022-23. This may reflect the greater number of places available to other nationalities now that New Zealand citizens already in Australia do not have to go through the permanent residence stage. On the other hand, the permanent plan is slightly smaller. The figures do not yet include the effects of the new Pacific engagement visa which is a permanent resident visa in addition to the 190,000 permanent immigration program.
- Net visitor movements in the nine months to the end of March 2024 were a positive 191,110 compared to a positive 210,230 in the corresponding period in 2022-23. This may reflect a higher refusal rate for visitors from certain countries, as well as greater use of the “no overstay” condition on visitor visas from major source countries. Whether this means a smaller contribution to net migration from visitors in 2023-24 cannot be said at this stage, but it is likely.
- Net temporary movements of skilled workers in the nine months to March 2024 were a positive 27,020 compared to a positive 34,880 in the corresponding period in 2022-23. This decrease is surprising considering the strength of the labor market.
- Net other temporary work visas (these include working holidaymakers) for the nine months to March 2024 were 69,270 compared to 90,140 in the corresponding period in 2022-23. This may reflect the rapid increase in the number of working holidaymakers merging in 2023-24 and an increase in departures.
- Net other temporary visas (these include departures on temporary graduate visas and bridging visas) for the nine months to March 2024 were negative 13,430 compared to positive 12,340 in the corresponding period in 2022-23. This may reflect some of the larger stock of such visa holders in Australia leaving.
- Net other visas for the nine months to March 2024 were negative 36,860 compared to negative 25,430 in the corresponding period in 2022-23. Again, this may reflect the larger stock of outgoing Australian temporary registrants.
The overall conclusion to draw from this is that net migration in 2023-24 is likely to be well above the forecast of 375,000 but probably less than the 2022-23 result of over 500,000. The main uncertainty appears to be the high flow of Australian citizens and whether the smaller visitor traffic will result in a smaller visitor contribution to net migration.
The figures also suggest that if the government is to lower net migration in 2024-25 to its forecast of 250,000, it will need to do more policy tightening, noting that it has announced other visa initiatives that will add to net migration.
Dr. Abul Rizvi is Freelance columnist in Australia and former Deputy Secretary of the Ministry of Immigration. You can follow Abul on Twitter @Rizvi Abul.
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