Achi news desk-
- Previous 2.8% (not revised to 2.8%)
- PCE Core YoY 2.8% compared to 2.7% estimate
- PCE Core MoM 0.3% vs. estimate of 0.3%.
- Previous MoM +0.3% not revised to 0.3%
- Headline PCE 2.7% compared to 2.6% estimate
- Headline MoM PCE 0.3% vs 0.3% expected
- For the full report CLICK HERE
Consumer spending and consumer income for March:
- Personal income 0.5% compared to 0.5% estimate. Previous month 0.3%.
- Personal consumption 0.8% compared to 0.6% estimate. Previous month 0.8%
- Real personal spending 0.5% compared to 0.5% last month (revised from 0.4%).
The core PCE rise was 0.32% out to 2 decimal places. So on the higher side of 0.3%. This is better than feared. Yesterday, the rumors were for 0.4% and maybe closer to 0.5%.
It looks like the PCE was higher than yesterday’s GDP PCE in January. January can be surprising due to year-end/year-start volatility. That said, the rise in inflation has slowed (see chart above). The Fed target is still down at 2.0% with some thinking that if they hit 2.5% it would give them some ammunition to take some of the restrictive financial conditions.
Expectations for a rate cut in September are only marginally higher compared to the 58% chance before the report.
US stocks initially moved higher (NASDAQ is up about 180 points), but have come off a bit. US yields are a few basis points lower:
- 2-year yield 4.974%, -2.5 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.681%, -3.5 basis points
- 10-year yield 4.658%, -4.7 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.768%, -5.2 basis points
That compares to US session start levels:
- 2 year yield 4.999%
- 5 year yield 4.708%
- 10 year yield 4.685%
- 30 year yield 4.791%
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The post US PCE core inflation expected PCE 2.8% YoY vs. 2.7% – ForexLive appeared first on Canadian News Media.
