Achi news desk-
New Delhi: WeightThe Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Monday that there is a possibility of more than normal rainfall throughout the country during this year’s monsoon.
IMD chief Mrityunjay Mahapatra told a press conference here that monsoon seasonal rainfall between June 1 and September 30 under the southwest monsoon across the country is expected to be 106 percent of the long period average (long period average… LPA).
Mohapatra said the IMD considers in its forecast the impact of El Nino, La Nino dipole conditions, Indian Ocean and Northern Hemisphere snow cover conditions and all these conditions are favorable for a good monsoon over India this time.
He said that except some parts of northwest, east and northeast India, there is a strong possibility of above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Mohapatra said that based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, a new long-term average has been introduced in recent years, according to which the average rainfall for the entire country is 87 cm between June 1 and September 30.
According to him, if the amount of seasonal precipitation is between 96% and 104% of the long-term average then it is considered normal.
The IMD chief said that the rainfall of 106 percent of the long period average falls in the above normal category and if the rainfall is between 105 percent and 110 percent of the long period average then it is considered above normal.
According to the IMD chief, moderate El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the El Nino conditions may further weaken to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the early part of the monsoon season and thereafter. , it is likely that La Nina conditions will develop in August-September.
He said that when El Nino conditions occur, which occur most years, it has a negative effect on rainfall.
He said there were La Nino conditions for 22 years from 1951 to 2023, and most of those years had normal or above-normal rainfall under the southwest monsoon, but despite La Nino conditions, rainfall in 1974 and 2000 was below normal.
According to Mohapatra, there were nine years between 1951 and 2023 when El Niño went and La Niño came, as is happening this year. According to him, out of these nine years, the monsoon rains were above normal in two years, and there were excessive rains in five years and the other two years the rain was almost normal.
At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently exist over the Indian Ocean and positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the southwest monsoon season, which is good for the monsoon, he said.
The head of the IMD said that during the last three months (from January to March 2024), less snow fell in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in Europe and Asia. He said the area of ​​snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia was below normal and below normal snow favoring rains in India during June to September.
