Achi news desk-
It is hard to see how this can be possible unless the ruling alliance holds its old ground and also covers new ground in areas where it failed last time – say, the whole of the southern region or parts of the eastern region.
In the south, the NDA alliance in 2019 won 30 out of 130 seats in the five states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana, but 25 of them came from Karnataka. However, Karnataka now has a Congress state government known for its progressive initiatives, boosting its standing and campaign energy, so it is unlikely that the BJP will reach 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in that state in 2019, for one. .
There is hype led by the BJP that the party is doing well in Tamil Nadu, where it drew a blank last time and is now waging a tough fight in the urban areas. But the BJP campaign, positioned as an ideological challenge to the Dravidian movement, is unlikely to resonate in a country where all regional parties trace their origins and ideologies directly or indirectly to Periyar’s Dravidian movement.
The DMK has also managed to mount a strong campaign specifically targeting the Prime Minister and calling him out repeatedly for institutionalizing corruption. The BJP may again draw a blank here.
Thus, without any growth in the northern region, where the BJP reached its maximum in 2019, and without new ground from elsewhere, it becomes almost impossible for the BJP to improve its overall tally in 2019.
In fact, the party could slide down significantly from its stated benchmarks, given the new realities in states like Bihar and Maharashtra. In Bihar, the moniker of ‘Paltu Ram’ seems to have stuck to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the JD(U) for going back and forth in and out of the BJP. It is hard to see how the JD(U)–BJP–LJP troika of the NDA can deliver 39 of the 40 seats they got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
