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The federal carbon tax and its associated rebates rise today as the national price on carbon emissions increases from $65 per metric ton to $80.

Although the national carbon price applies across the country, not everyone pays the federal carbon tax and receives a refund.

Carbon pricing works differently in Quebec, the three territories and British Columbia – residents do not receive federal rebates. The remaining provinces are subject to the federal government’s carbon tax or fuel levy, and families or residents receive rebates from Ottawa.

Canada also has a mix of federal, provincial and territorial carbon pricing systems for industrial emitters.

Starting today, the increase in the federal carbon tax will cost drivers an extra 3.3 cents per liter at the pump. Since Ottawa’s fuel levy was introduced in 2019, the carbon tax has added 17.6 cents to the cost of a liter of gasoline. The levies for other fuels can be find online.

The rebates — which were recently rebranded as the Canada Carbon Rebate — have also increased along with the carbon price, Finance Canada said. To receive the refund, you need to file an income tax return. The refund arrives by direct deposit into your bank account or by check in the mail.

The payments come every three months; the next one is expected to arrive as early as April 15.

Here are the amounts a single adult can expect to receive each quarter:

• $225 in Alberta.
• $150 in Manitoba.
• $140 in Ontario.
• $188 in Saskatchewan.
• $95 in New Brunswick.
• $103 in Nova Scotia.
• $110 in Prince Edward Island.
• $149 in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Here are the amounts a family of four can expect to receive each quarter:

• $450 in Alberta.
• $300 in Manitoba.
• $280 in Ontario.
• $376 in Saskatchewan.
• $190 in New Brunswick.
• $206 in Nova Scotia.
• $220 in Prince Edward Island.
• $298 in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Rural residents get an extra 10 per cent on their refunds because they tend to drive more and use more fuel. That rural supplementary amount will double once there is a bill now before the Senedd becomes law.

However, Nova Scotia, PEI, and Newfoundland and Labrador will see their rebates drop after Ottawa exempts home heating oil from the carbon tax. In October, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that the government will delay for three years the carbon pricing scheme on home heating oil in the states and territories where the carbon levy applies.

While New Brunswick is not seeing a reduction in rebate amounts, the other Atlantic provinces are because Ottawa collects less money from these provinces which tend to be more dependent on furnace oil than other parts of the country

All money collected directly by the federal carbon pricing system, the federal government says, is returned to the province or territory where it is collected. About 90 percent of the federal carbon tax goes toward rebates. The rest goes to indigenous communities, farmers and businesses.

National carbon pricing, a core federal Liberal climate policy, is facing growing opposition. Ahead of Monday’s increase, the opposition Conservatives and at least seven major leagues called on the government to halt the increase. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says if he forms a government he will “get rid of the tax,” because of the financial hardship the increase in the price of carbon is putting on families and businesses.

It is unclear whether a future federal Conservative government would also remove carbon prices for industrial emitters. Poilievre has not detailed how his proposal to use “technology not taxes” would ensure Canada meets its emissions reduction targets.

The federal government says eight out of 10 families receive more in refunds than they pay under the carbon tax. The total can also be find online.

A fiscal analysis by the independent parliamentary budget officer supports Ottawa’s claim. The budget watchdog is often cited report found wealthy families will lose money when the carbon price peaks in 2030-31 at $170 per metric ton. Lower and middle income families will make money from the refunds, says the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO).

The PBO also concluded in a separate economic analysis that the federal carbon tax, at $170 per ton, will cut jobs and profits in the transportation and oil and gas sectors. This means that workers in the oilfield could lose their jobs and Canadians who hold shares in oil companies like Suncor or Cenovus could see lower investment returns.

Are emissions falling because of the carbon tax?

After several years of the national carbon price. Environment and Climate Change Canada said its modeling shows Canadian emissions would have been higher without carbon pricing.

The federal department said that in the most recent year for emissions data (2021), emissions “would have been about 18 megatonnes higher in the absence of Canada’s carbon pricing plan.” That figure is almost equivalent to Manitoba’s annual emissions.

“Changing the energy system in an economy is a lot like steering a cargo ship. It takes time,” said Sara Hastings-Simon, an associate professor in the University of Calgary’s faculty of science who studies carbon pricing and the energy transition.

“So we are just starting to see those, the results of those efforts and … if we can continue on that path, if we continue to have the series of climate policies that we have in place, we will continue to see those emissions’ n start to fall from where they would have been and actually fall in an absolute sense.”

The federal government has said the price on carbon, including consumer and industrial carbon pricing, is expected to account for about a third of Canada’s emissions discounts.

An independent analysis by the Canadian Climate Institute, released in March, shows that the federal government’s current suite of climate policies is poised to significantly reduce Canada’s emissions.

The report found that carbon pricing — both the consumer and industrial versions — is projected to reduce emissions by as much as 50 percent by 2030.

The report shows that the pricing policy for large emissions accounts for most of the projected cuts in emissions—driving three times the emissions reductions attributed to the consumer carbon price.

The institute’s report says industrial carbon pricing is projected to contribute “between 23 and 39 percent (or 53 to 90 megatonnes) of avoided emissions from all policies implemented to date.”

The report says the consumer carbon price accounts for between 8 and 9 percent (or 19 to 22 megatonnes) of projected reductions in emissions.

The Canadian Climate Institute conducts climate change policy research. It describes itself as a non-partisan and independent organization that receives financial support from Environment and Climate Change Canada and other private donors including the Ivey Foundation, Scotiabank and Loblaws.

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