Achi news desk-
Only a year ago a fall of 7% was predicted.
Experts in demographic change say that the problem is not limited to the Highlands and that there are issues across Scotland at work but he described the situation in the north as “dire”.
In the West Highlands, which includes Kinlochleven and Kinlochbervie, numbers could drop by as much as 27%.
The top performing school in the region, Culloden Academy, is predicted to see a 10% drop, with the only other school below 20% being Kinlochbervie at 15%, with the roll predicted to be reduced to 23 pupils.
The five Inverness secondary schools are expected to lose 20% of their pupils, while the reduction in the rest of the Highlands is expected to be 25%.
The 2022 Census of Scotland found that the population of the Highlands had increased by 1.4% since 2011 and that 23.7% were aged 65 or over, compared to 2.7% and 20.1% respectively for Scotland as a whole.
A spokesman for Highland Council said: “It should be remembered that these are only forecasts based on the current building programmes.
“They do not reflect the effects of measures we are proposing to support major economic developments, for which housing and infrastructure are considered proactive.
“The forecasts are reviewed annually, and they will respond to and plan for such measures.”
Professor David Bell from the Stirling School of Management at the University of Stirling and an expert in demographic change said: “The predicted reduction in the number of pupils is of great concern for the sustainability of the populations of the North and West of the Highlands.
“Without significant immigration of working-age families, the process is cumulative, with each generation smaller than the last – leading to irreversible social, economic and cultural decline.
“A return to the levels of working-age immigration experienced in the Highlands in the early 2000s is unlikely in the current political climate: other solutions must be found.”
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) set up the Smart and Sustainable Shrinkage project in February 2023 to look at how depopulation leads to a mismatch between infrastructure, service provision and the built environment.
“This project can provide valuable lessons for our policy makers,” said Professor Bell.
“However, the scope for public sector solutions to population decline will be limited for the foreseeable future due to the financial constraints of the Highlands Council.
“It is inevitable that there will be more emphasis on solutions in the community and the private sector, with the Highlands Council’s role mainly limited to that of a facilitator.”
“Forecasts are just forecasts, but this is Highland Council’s best attempt, and we have to take them seriously – while at the same time hoping time proves them wrong,” added David Richardson, development manager Federation of Small Businesses of the Highlands and Islands.
“Losing around a quarter of their pupils in 15 years to schools in the Highlands as a whole is very frightening.
“Could the sounds of babies crying and children playing in our rural villages eventually become rare, and what are the consequences if they do?
“The visitor economy dominates much of our region and has experienced ever-worsening staff shortages for years, and the Federation of Small Businesses surveys found that although a third of all businesses in Skye are short of staff in 2016, the situation had worsened to six out of ten in the Highlands in 2022.
“The result? Many understaffed businesses have been forced to cut opening hours, the range of services they offer, or both to survive, and this can inevitably affect perceptions value for money customers and from the Highlands as a place to live, visit and do business.”
He said the creation of the Inverness and Cromarty Firth Green Port (ICFGF) was a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to create thousands of jobs in the Highlands but said this raised its own questions.
He said: “With forecasts that the numbers of pupils will decrease so suddenly and new jobs will be created, where will the workers come from to fill the number of new jobs, not to mention the old ones?
“Will existing employees be attracted to work for Freeport businesses instead, and what will be the resulting impact on existing businesses?
“Will more young people at home be persuaded to stay on to take advantage of the opportunities?
“Will workers from outside the Highlands, especially those with young families, be attracted to move here to live?
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“Lots of questions, but at the end of the day we need more people of working age in the Highlands to fill the vacancies and create the vibrant and economically and socially sustainable communities we need.
“For this to happen we must provide appropriate and affordable accommodation, decent medical and educational services, decent retail, hospitality and leisure facilities, good transport and digital connectivity, and last but not least, decent career prospects.”
David Whiteford, chairman of Highland Coast Hotels added:”As with Highland businesses in general, we try to give our target markets the best possible quality, service and value for money, and trying to do that when there are not enough staff presents huge challenges.”
