Achi news desk-
Israel and Iran are likely to try to avoid further escalating their long-simmering row into a regional war after an apparent strike by Israel last week, one Middle East expert said – but Iran may still be building a target list for the future.
Israel and the United States have not commented on who was responsible for a series of explosions over the Iranian city of Isfahan on Friday, which Iran said were air defenses shooting down several attack drones launched by Israel. It came almost a week after Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel – almost all of which were repelled – in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
Iran has played down Friday’s incident and said it does not intend to retaliate – a response that Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, says Israel is likely planning for.
“I think you really see Iran trying to put this away and not have a big war over this,” he told Mercedes Stephenson in an interview that aired on Sunday. Western Bloc.
“Iran is probably not ready for a huge escalation in war, and Israel certainly doesn’t want that at a time when they are also struggling to complete things in Gaza and figure out what to do about Rafah.”
The fact that the drones apparently targeted Isfahan, which is home not only to a major air base but also to sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program, further demonstrates that Israel’s response to the Iranian attack was “proportionate ,” Panikoff added.
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“It’s really saying to the Iranians, look, we can hit you. You are not allowed to target us with impunity,” he said.
“(Israel says,) ‘We’re giving you out here. We have no interest in escalating if you don’t want to escalate.’ And so it’s really now the Iranians’ court to make a decision whether they feel the need to hit Israel again or let it go.”
While Iran may not want to strike back at Israel in the short term, Panikoff said he has “no doubt” that Tehran is building a target list that could be used in the future. The Iranian attack showed that the regime is currently focused on military targets in Israel, but he said that could change.
“That (target list) probably includes both military targets for future conflict which is somewhat limited, (and) civilian targets (if it is) much broader,” he said.
Hezbollah may also have a separate list of potential targets that could include Israeli gas depots and even the headquarters of its nuclear program, he said.
Reuters reported on Friday that Israel is holding back on previously approved plans for responding to the Iranian attack after facing cabinet divisions and strong warnings from partners including the United States not to escalate the conflict.
The US has repeatedly said it will support the defense of Israel if Iran continues to attack. Panikoff said the same may not be said for Iran, whose closest allies – Russia and China – are more “negotiative” without the close bonds that Israel and the West enjoy.
“The Iran-Russia relationship has become much, much closer throughout the Russian war in Ukraine … but there are questions about whether that is purely tactical or whether it really has a strategic nature,” he said.
“Will Russia come to meaningfully support Iran in the event of a conflict? Will China provide support to Iran? Probably not.”
& copy 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
