Achi news desk-
Campaigning for the Lok Sabha elections in Haryana will end tonight. Voting will be held simultaneously on all 10 seats in the state on May 25. The contest here is between the BJP and the Congress. BJP, which won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2019, is claiming a clean sweep this time too.
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Dr Ramji Lal, former principal of Dayal Singh College, Karnal, says that this is the first time in Haryana in the last 15-20 years, when the anti-danger wave is at its peak. Despite this, the ruling party seems to be better than the opposition.
The agitation that started with the announcement of Lok Sabha election dates on March 16 continued for almost two and a quarter months. During this period, many changes were seen one after the other in the electoral scenario of Haryana. If the general atmosphere, party campaigns, anti-incumbency wave, candidate selection, election management and caste equations are assessed 48 hours before voting, then BJP can win 7 seats and 3 seats for Congress in Haryana.
Those who keep a close eye on the politics of the state believe that if the anger of Jats and farmers in the rural belt increases beyond one level, then shocking results may also come. If BJP strategists manage to control the situation in the last 48 hours, then the party can win more than 7 seats. Amid the scorching heat, how successful are the BJP’s strategists in getting the urban voters out of their homes and into the polling booth? Much will depend on this as well.
BJP is contesting on all 10 seats and Congress on 9 seats in the state. The Congress has given the Kurukshetra seat to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a member of the INDIA Alliance.
So far, Union Minister Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh and BJP National President JP Nadda have held rallies in Haryana. BJP leaders have held rallies in Karnal, Rohtak, Kurukshetra and other places.
BJP got 58.02% votes, 17% vote swing for Congress, tough task
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Haryana, BJP received a total of 58.02% votes and won all the seats. With an additional vote swing of 23.32%, the party took the lead in 79 of the 90 assembly seats in the state.
In comparison, the Congress got 28.42% votes. An additional vote swing of 5.52% was seen in his favour, but the party could only take 10 out of 90 assembly seats. JJP was ahead in one Assembly seat.
Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which contested the elections for the first time, got 4.9% of votes and BSP got 3.65% of votes. INLD suffered the biggest loss. He received only 1.9% of votes and his 22.51% of votes slipped compared to 2014.
This time, of course, there is opposition from the BJP on the ground, but to defeat it, the Congress will have to get more than 45% of votes. Getting an additional 17% vote swing in the bipolar battle is not impossible but it is definitely a difficult task. If the performance of INLD, JJP and BSP weakens and their votes are also divided between Congress-BJP, the competition will become tougher.
State government’s anger at Lok Sabha candidates
There is more resentment among the people about the working style of the Haryana government than that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP high command had also realized this, so it did not take the risk of holding the assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha despite the wishes of the state unit.
Despite this, Lok Sabha candidates face public anger. If the results of the Lok Sabha election are not as per the expectations of the BJP leadership, then the Haryana government will be more responsible for it.
However, BJP has an advantage in urban areas due to Modi factor and Ram Mandir. The party has also focused more on urban areas so that if there is a loss in the rural area due to farmers’ anger, it can be balanced by getting more votes from urban areas.
The change in CM’s face gave the opposition an opportunity to attack.
Just before the Lok Sabha elections were announced, the change in the face of CM also gave the opposition an opportunity to be aggressive. In fact, by changing the Chief Minister, the BJP leadership in a way accepted the lack of functioning of its government in the state. If the decision to change the CM had been taken after the Lok Sabha elections, this weapon might not have been in the hands of the opposition parties.
How questions were asked to BJP leaders and candidates in rural areas this time was unprecedented. For this reason, the candidates could not even campaign much in the villages.
Assembly elections are proposed in the state after 6 months and it seems that the people there are in the mood for a change. This is also one of the reasons for increased opposition to Lok Sabha candidates.
BJP faces the challenge of taking urban voters to the booth during summer and weekends.
This time in Haryana, it seems all summer records have been broken. According to the Meteorological Department, on May 22 itself, Sirsa district was the hottest in the entire country. The maximum temperature there reached 47.8 degrees Celsius. Voting is on 25 May in the state and Nautapa starts from the same day.
BJP’s hopes rest on urban voters. However, it is doubtful whether the urban voter will leave his house and go to the polling booth in such heat. 25 May is also a Saturday. The effect of the two-day weekend can be seen on voting in urban areas.
It remains to be seen how successful BJP strategists are in their strategy of taking urban voters from home to the booth in 47 degree temperatures.
BJP is getting support from the Modi factor in the anti-majority wave
After traveling across Haryana, one thing is clear that there is an anti-incumbency wave towards the BJP. In such a situation, its big leaders are also depending on the Modi factor. Understanding the ground situation, even Manohar Lal Khattar and Rao Inderjit are putting themselves on the back foot and asking for votes in the name of Modi.
BJP actually has a big and strong face in the form of Narendra Modi. At the moment the opposition has no face on which voters can place their bets. Now as voters have no option, they can vote in favor of BJP despite all the anger. BJP strategists are expecting something similar and if this happens, the political wind may turn to the saffron party in the heat of the atmosphere in May.
BJP gets an advantage by fielding candidates before the election is announced
BJP announced its first candidates in Haryana. Six candidates announced on March 13, three days before the election dates were announced. The atmosphere seemed to be in favor of BJP after faces like Manohar Lal Khattar, Rao Inderjit, Krishnapal Gurjar, Chaudhary Dharambir, Banto Kataria and Ashok Tanwar got tickets.
The party announced the names of the other 4 candidates on March 24. It surprised again by giving tickets to Naveen Jindal and Ranjit Chautala. With more grassroots activity, BJP started getting hype.
Congress got mileage due to delay in tickets
The wait for the Congress list took a very long time and the reason for this was factionalism among the leaders. The top management had to form a sub-committee to manage all the camps. Finally, the first list of 8 Congress candidates came on 26 April ie a month and a half after the announcement of BJP candidates. Raj Babbar’s ticket was completed by Gurugram on 30 April.
In a way, Congress benefited from delaying the ticket. Discussions of potential candidates continued everywhere and new names emerged every day. This gave the party miles. In the ticket allocation, because strong faces got a chance on most of the seats, the Congress not only stood in the race but was also seen taking the initial advantage on one or half a seat.
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh candidate Rao Dan Singh and former minister Kiran Choudhary clashed in front of Rahul Gandhi during the rally at Charkhi Dadri on Wednesday (22 May).
Favorable environment after 10 years but factionalism will be costly
If its shortcomings do not come in the way, the Congress can perform better this time than in the last two general elections. If this does not happen, it will be proved once again that the Congress leaders defeat the Congress more than any other party.
Talking about the last 4 Lok Sabha elections, in 2004, Congress had won 9 out of 10 seats. In 2009 it had 7 seats but in 2014 this figure came down to just 1 seat. In 2019, the party also lost the only Rohtak seat.
Abhay Chautala’s aim is only to save the symbol of the party.
Former state CM Omprakash Chautala of India National Lok Dal (INLD) has fielded candidates on some seats but none of them are in the main contest. INLD’s lone MP, Abhay Chautala himself has contested from the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat to save his party’s election symbol – glasses.
The Congress has given the Kurukshetra seat to its ally in the INDIA Alliance, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Abhay is making a dent in the votes of AAP state president Sushil Gupta, who is contesting the elections here. With this, the path for BJP’s Naveen Jindal seems a little easier.
It is difficult for JJP candidates to save security deposit.
There is a huge stampede in Omprakash Chautala’s grandson Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). The party is in a period of disintegration. Most of the Dushyant MLAs are busy campaigning for BJP and Congress candidates instead of their own candidates.
Dushyant’s mother Naina Chautala is facing a challenge from her own sister-in-law and INLD candidate Sunaina Chautala to stand third in Hisar. If the JJP candidates manage to save their deposit in this election, it will be a coup for the party. Although its possibility is negligible.
