Achi news desk-
Conservatives lose majority but remain largest party
The General Election is being held using new constituency boundaries, which means that the results will not be directly comparable to what happened in the last general election in 2019.
In order to judge how well the parties are doing in the election, and to work out which seats they need to win to form a government, a set of hypothetical results for the 2019 election has been calculated to show what would would have happened if there had been that competition. occur using the new boundaries.
These notional results have been compiled by professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher from Plymouth University, on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the PA news agency, and will be used as a basis for reporting the earnings and the losses in the General Election.
Under these hypothetical results, the Conservatives won 372 seats in the 2019 election.
A total of 326 seats is needed for a majority in the House of Commons, so the Tories can afford to lose up to 46 seats before falling below this threshold.
A uniform nationwide change in the share of the Conservative to Labor vote in the election of 4.2 percentage points would likely be enough to wipe out the Tory majority, as it would mean 47 Conservative losses – 40 for Labour, five for the Liberal Democrats and two for the SNP – reducing them to 325 seats.
This scenario has been calculated on the basis of the Conservative vote share falling by 4.2 percentage points in every seat in Britain, Labour’s share rising by the same amount, while no other parties have changed.
Seats that Labor would win from the Tories on a swing of 4.2 points start with Burnley in Lancashire, the party’s number one target, which needs a swing of just 0.13 points to change hands (0.2 if written to one place decimal, as 0.1 would not). be enough).
They also include Chingford and Woodford Green in London, Stoke-on-Trent Central in the West Midlands, Hastings & Rye in East Sussex and Truro & Falmouth in Cornwall.
The 47th Conservative loss by swing size – the one that would represent the point where the Tories lose their majority, although they would still be the largest party in the House of Commons – is Wrexham in the north, which Labor would win on the threshold. 4.2 (4.18) points.
Labor is the largest party in a hung parliament
Under this scenario, no party has a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but Labor manages to win more constituencies than the Conservatives, making it the largest party in what is known as a hung parliament .
It is likely that a uniform change in the share of the vote from the Conservatives to Labor of 8.3 percentage points would be enough to ensure this result.
A swing of this nature would see the Conservatives lose 92 seats, reducing their total from 372 to 280.
At the same time, Labor would win 81 seats – 79 seats from the Tories, and two from the SNP – meaning that its total would rise from its hypothetical result in 2019 from 201 seats to 282.
This figure for Labor includes the Speaker’s seat of Chorley.
With no need for a party to reach 326 seats for an overall majority in the House of Commons, the next step may be for two or more parties to begin negotiations to form a coalition government, or for one party to try to form a minority government, or even age to another. general election to be held.
Overall, 94 seats would change hands under this scenario, which is based on an 8.3 point shift from the Conservatives to Labor with no change in the share of the vote for other parties.
This would also lead to the Liberal Democrats gaining nine seats from the Conservatives, while the SNP would gain four from the Tories but lose two seats to Labour.
Among the seats that Labor would win from the Tories on a swing of 8.3 points are Darlington in County Durham, Bolsover in Derbyshire, Shrewsbury in Shropshire and Uxbridge & South Ruislip in London, the seat of former prime minister Boris Johnson.
Labour’s 81st gain by swing size – the one that would represent the point at which Labor would become the largest party in a hung parliament – ​​is Chelsea & Fulham in London, which the party would win from the Conservatives on a swing of 8.3 ( 8.21) points.
Labor wins an overall majority
In this scenario, Labor does enough to reach 326 seats – the number needed for an overall majority in the House of Commons.
It is likely that a uniform change in the share of the vote from the Conservatives to Labor of 12.7 percentage points would be enough to secure this result – a swing larger than that achieved by Labor under Tony Blair in the 1997 general election.
A swing of this size would see the Conservatives lose 135 seats, reducing their total from 372 to 237.
At the same time, Labor would gain 125 seats, including 117 seats from the Tories, meaning that its total would rise from its hypothetical result in 2019 of 201 seats to the magic number of 326.
Overall, 143 seats would change hands under this scenario, which is based solely on a 12.7 point shift from the Conservatives to Labor with no change in the share of the vote for other parties.
This would also see the Liberal Democrats gain 12 seats from the Conservatives, while the SNP would gain six seats from the Tories but lose seven seats to Labour, and Labor would take one seat from Plaid Cymru.
Among the seats that Labor would win from the Tories on a swing of 12.7 points are Bournemouth East in Dorset, Scunthorpe in Lincolnshire, Colchester in Essex and Dover & Deal in Kent.
The 125th Labor seat by swing size – the one that would represent the point where Labor had an overall majority in the House of Commons – is Buckingham & Bletchley in Buckinghamshire, which the party would win by the Conservatives on a swing of 12.7 (12.69) points.
Labor wins a working majority
This scenario sees an even bigger tilt for Labour, one big enough to give the party a working majority of 30 seats in the next House of Commons.
It is likely that a uniform change in the share of the vote from the Conservatives to Labor of 13.8 percentage points would be enough to ensure this result.
A swing of this size would see the Conservatives lose 147 seats, reducing their total from 372 to 225.
Labor would gain 139 seats, including 129 seats from the Tories, which means that its total would rise from its notional result in 2019 from 201 seats to 340.
Some 157 seats would change hands under this scenario, which is based solely on a 13.8 point shift from the Conservatives to Labor with no other parties seeing a change in their share of the vote.
This would also see the Liberal Democrats gain 12 seats from the Conservatives, while the SNP would gain six seats from the Tories but lose nine seats to Labour, and Labor take one seat from Plaid Cymru.
Among the seats that Labor would win from the Tories on a swing of 13.8 points are Morecambe & Lunesdale in Lancashire, Rugby in Warwickshire, Thurrock in Essex and Banbury in Oxfordshire.
The 139th Labor gain by swing size – the one that would mark the point at which Labor reached an overall majority of 30 – is Plymouth Moor View in Devon, which the party would win from the Conservatives on a swing of 13.8 (13.78) point .
