Achi news desk-
LONDON –
Sales of electric cars will rise strongly in 2024 and increasingly undermine demand for oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast on Tuesday, adding affordability and charging infrastructure would be key to future growth.
Sales of electric cars will reach 17 million this year, compared to 14 million in 2023, with more than one in five cars sold globally to be electric, the IEA said, predicting that 10 million of those sales in China.
The pace of electric vehicle use will mean that oil demand for road transport should peak around 2025, the Paris-based watchdog said in its Global Electric Vehicle Outlook.
If countries continue with stated energy and climate policies, around six million barrels per day (bpd) will be shaved off oil demand by 2030 and 11 million bpd by 2035 – or over a tenth of the total current oil demand, says the IEA.
“Tight margins, volatile battery metal prices, high inflation, and the phasing out of purchase incentives in some countries have fueled concerns about the pace of industry growth, but global sales data remains strong,” he said of demand. for EV.
Sales in the first quarter of this year were up 25% compared to the same period last year. While that rate is unchanged from the first quarter of 2023 versus the same period in 2022, it comes on top of a larger vehicle base, the IEA said.
Still, electric cars’ share of total purchases will vary widely by region, representing around one in nine vehicle purchases in the US, one in four in Europe, but almost half in China , the IEA forecast.
European uptake is being held back by a “generally weak outlook for passenger car sales and the phasing out of subsidies in some countries,” he said.
Affordability compared to traditional vehicles remains key to the sector’s growth, he added, with prices again varying greatly by region.
Internal combustion cars remain more affordable than their electric equivalents in Europe and the US, while in China almost two-thirds of electric cars sold last year were cheaper than their equivalents traditional.
“In general, electric cars are getting cheaper as battery prices fall, competition intensifies, and automakers achieve economies of scale,” the IEA said, noting that in some cases – adjusting for inflation – prices have stagnated or even slightly increased between 2018 and 2022.
Meeting the growing demand for charging infrastructure will also be a key challenge, the IEA added, with charging networks needing to increase sixfold by 2035.
(Reporting by Noah Browning; Editing by Mark Potter)
