Achi news desk-
In an article in The National yesterday former leadership candidate Kate Forbes called on parliament to support Mr Yousaf in this week’s confidence votes.
But perhaps signaling a new orientation in the leadership – or perhaps the possibility of succeeding Mr Yousaf without a contest – he also called on the Greens to give her their support.
READ MORE: The SNP’s Kate Forbes hopes the Scottish Greens will ‘welcome’ her
As the Herald on Sunday revealed last week, some senior SNP officials think it is only a matter of time before Humza Yousaf gives up her roles at the helm of the government and the party.
“It’s now just a question of when it goes, not if,” one insider told us.
The collapse of the power-sharing arrangement with the Scottish Greens last week has increased the chance that Mr Yousaf could soon be out of power – possibly even next week if he loses no-confidence motions tabled by Conservatives Scotland and Labour.
Some in the SNP believe that the one put forward by Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross – a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister himself – is more of a threat than Labor which is offering no confidence in the government as a whole and less likely to succeed.
Their thinking is that parliamentary numbers would mean that even if the Scottish Greens voted for the entire government, Ash Regan – a leadership candidate in last year’s SNP race, who lost to Alba – is unlikely to do so as it would brings independence down. government, triggering an early Holyrood election and putting himself and party out of Holyrood. (Alba is yet to win any seats in Holyrood or Westminster in an election).
However, it could be a completely different matter where Ms Regan can stand on bringing down Mr Yousaf.
With Alex Salmond’s Scotland highly critical of the SNP under Mr Yousaf – particularly over what they say is a lack of progress on independence – people are wondering why then Ms Regan would jump to their rescue.
“If Alba can’t use this opportunity to bring Humza down then they are pretty toothless,” one observer noted.
The likelihood that Ms Regan would support Mr Yousaf in the Tory motion of no confidence increased further last night when the First Minister refused to call Alba for an electoral deal.
But even if the Prime Minister survives the two votes this week, with the opinion polls putting the SNP behind Labour, the party faces a serious result in this year’s general election – perhaps even as early as summer – and there is a sense of need. change at the top as they head towards the Holyrood election in 2026.
READ MORE: Analysis: Could Alex Salmond be welcomed back into the SNP fold?
The leader of the SNP in Westminster, Stephen Flynn, has ruled himself out of a new contest if Mr Yousaf resigns. He said he believed the leader of the SNP should also be First Minister.
There had previously been speculation as to whether Joanna Cherry – one of the party’s other most prominent politicians – would stand to be leader. However, like her colleague Mr Flynn, Ms Cherry is based in Westminster and may not have a key role as chair of the Commons human rights committee to do so.
It is very possible that Mr Yousaf could win the votes next week. Mr Flynn, who spoke to Mr Yousaf late on Thursday evening, said on Friday that the Prime Minister will “come out to fight”.
But the parliament’s arithmetic is on a knife edge and not on its face looks favorable to Mr Yousaf.
On Thursday afternoon, the Scottish Greens said they would support the motion of no confidence and vote to remove Yousaf.
If all Conservative, Labor and Liberal Democrat MPs joined the Greens to vote against Mr Yousaf it would give the proposal 64 votes, to the SNP’s 63.
The result would then depend on which way Ms Regan voted. If she voted to support Mr Yousaf the votes for and against the proposal would be equal at 64.
President Alison Johnstone would support the side that kept the status quo under a parliamentary convention. In this case he would support the Prime Minister.
If perhaps due to illness not all members of the opposition will vote, Mr Yousaf could survive as Prime Minister even if Ms Regan does not support him.
One opposition MLA is currently absent from parliament on what is believed to be health grounds. However, it is understood that the party in question has ‘fixed’ this potential issue with the absent MLA willing to cast their vote by proxy or use the remote voting system from home.
But Ms Regan’s support is far from certain with the SNP wary of putting Alba MLA in such a strong position to become a key decision maker over Mr Yousaf’s future – but also because of the ill will between the parties and the personalities involved .
It is possible that the Prime Minister regrets his words now when Ms Regan attacked Alba, saying “it was not a big loss”.
So what would happen if the Prime Minister lost the vote?
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Under the rules he is not obliged to stand down, however he would face considerable pressure to do so – and accusations of not respecting the will of parliament if he continued.
If he decided to announce his resignation, he could do so immediately or wait until the end of the SNP leadership election.
If he leaves immediately, Deputy First Minister Shona Robison would be in charge of the government. She is expected to step in for Mr Yousaf in the summer when he expects to go on paternity leave retaining his current title as Deputy First Minister.
Nevertheless, some in the party believe that it is more likely that he will remain as First Minister until his successor is elected – as Nicola Sturgeon did last spring.
There is speculation that there may not be a fight.
With a general election looming, the SNP’s support lagging behind Labor in some polls and the ongoing police investigation, some think the party has enough to contend with without adding a leadership election as well.
But if there is a new SNP contest should Mr Yousaf be forced out who would be the candidates?
Although it is possible that there could be a few contenders, only two serious potential runners are believed if a race is held – Ms Forbes and Neil Gray.
Ms Forbes returned early from maternity leave to stand in the contest last year where she was narrowly defeated by Mr Yousaf in the second round of voting by 52% to 48%.
Writing in The National yesterday, he noted how the SNP had effectively governed as a minority from 2007 to 2011 by working with different parties to get their legislation through Holyrood – and that the party went on to win a majority in 2011.
Significantly, she appealed to the Scottish Greens to support her.
“Let us escape the language of who is and who is not acceptable to work with. For example, long before and during the Bute House Agreement, Patrick Harvie and I worked together – that is no secret. It is not the question then is whether my world is big enough to embrace the Greens – the question is whether their world is big enough to embrace me.”
Ms Forbes has considerable support and influence in the party – particularly in the Highlands and in rural Scotland where the SNP will want to retain and increase its support before the general election.
Supporters will point to her high personal rating during last year’s contest among the public and pollsters’ suggestions that she can reach SNP and opposition voters.
They also believe that her bid in the 2023 race as someone who proposed a break from the Nicola Sturgeon era would put her in a strong position given the revelation of a significant part of her legacy including the Bute House Agreement and the gender recognition reforms .
However, she may struggle to gain the support of some members on the socially liberal left of the party. Her personal opposition to equal marriage – although she insisted she would not overturn the law – and self-identification of gender was used against her in the last contest. How successfully she steers the debate around such issues and morality and religious beliefs will be crucial in her campaign.
Labor politicians have been briefing that Holyrood would not elect Ms Forbes as First Minister, a move they say would increase the possibility of the government collapsing, forcing a Scottish Parliament election this year.
It is not a hope that some in the SNP think is likely.
They believe that if there is a new candidate for the SNP for First Minister of Wales, another party would put up their candidate and given that the SNP is the largest party, their nominee would win.
For example, if Ms Forbes was the SNP’s nominee and Scottish Tory MEP Douglas Ross put himself forward, Labor MSPs would not support Mr Ross, allowing Ms Forbes to win, they said.
They also believe that it is possible that one party – perhaps the Tories – could abstain perhaps fearing that giving their current vote would lose a significant number of seats in Holyrood.
The health secretary, Neil Gray, is a key ally of Mr Yousaf but is also said to be a figure who could demand support across the difference wings. Clearly, any candidate who can bring unity to a troubled and deeply divided party would be seen by many members as an asset.
Last week leading bookmaker Coral made Mr Gray the 4-5 favorite to be the next Prime Minister if Mr Yousaf steps down.
“Health secretary Neil Gray is seen as a safe pair of hands in the SNP, and we make him the favorite to replace Humza Yousaf should the Prime Minister be replaced,” said the bookie
The Cabinet Secretary, Mairi McAllan, is another possible contender.
Her climate target announcement a week ago last Thursday set in motion the events that led to the collapse of the Bute House Agreement and a vote of no confidence next week.
Because she is going on maternity leave in the summer, Ms McAllan’s family time may be short-lived if she becomes Prime Minister with a general election probably a few months away. Some in the party believe she may not decide to stand under the circumstances.
Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth could also throw her hat into the ring.
It is believed that, rather than a large list of candidates, the party might prefer to have a head-to-head between Mr Gray and Ms Forbes if there was a leader election.
For now, however, all eyes will be fixed on what happens when Mr Yousaf faces the fight of his political life in the no-confidence vote, most expected to take place in Holyrood next Wednesday .
