Achi news desk-
Long the world’s undisputed cocoa powerhouses, accounting for more than 60% of global supply, Ghana and its West African neighbor, Ivory Coast, are both facing catastrophic harvests this season.
Expectations of a shortage of cocoa beans—the raw material for chocolate—have seen New York cocoa futures more than double this year alone. They hit new highs almost daily in an unprecedented trend that shows little sign of abating.
More than 20 farmers, experts and industry insiders told Reuters that a perfect storm of rampant illegal gold mining, climate change, sector mismanagement and the rapid spread of disease was to blame.
In its most sobering assessment to date, based on data collected since 2018 and obtained by Reuters, Ghana’s cocoa marketing board, Cocobod, estimates that 590,000 hectares (1.45 million acres) of plantations have been infected with swollen bulb, a virus that will eventually kill them.
Ghana currently has about 1.38 million hectares (3.41 million acres) of land under cocoa cultivation, a figure that Cocobod says includes infected trees that still produce cocoa.
“Production is in a long-term decline,” said Steve Wateridge, a cocoa expert with Tropical Research Services. “We wouldn’t have gotten the lowest harvest in 20 years in Ghana and the lowest in eight years in Ivory Coast, if we hadn’t reached a turning point.”
It’s an imbroglio with no easy fixes that has rattled markets and could spell the beginning of the end for West Africa’s cocoa supremacy, experts told Reuters. This may open the door for emerging producers, especially in Latin America.
And while millions of cocoa farmers in West Africa are facing a painful watershed moment, this is a change that will also be felt in the rich consumer markets, perhaps for years to come.
Shoppers buying candy for Easter in the United States are finding that chocolate on store shelves is 10 percent more expensive than a year ago, according to data from research firm NielsenIQ.
Since chocolate makers tend to hedge cocoa purchases months in advance, analysts said the devastating crops in West Africa will only really hit consumers later this year.
“The kind of chocolate bars that we’re used to eating, it’s going to become a luxury,” said Ted George, an Africa-focused commodities expert at Kleos Advisory. “It will be available, but it’s going to be twice as expensive.”
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