Achi news desk-
The impact of warmer, wetter winters is a particular concern for the UK wheat harvest, with the ECIU saying production could be down by as much as 26.5% compared to last year. Milling wheat, which is used to make bread, is likely to be hit particularly hard as it must meet higher quality requirements which are more difficult for farmers to meet in bad weather.
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This led one of the UK’s biggest bread makers, Kingsmill owner Associated British Foods, to warn last week of possible higher prices. Speaking as the company revealed its interim results, chief executive George Weston said the group had not increased its food prices in the past six months following a major period of inflation last year.
But he also added: “One to watch out for is UK cereal. The harvest in July and August may be very small and we may be importing quite a lot of grain into the UK and that will come at a cost.”
Meanwhile, a predicted 37.6% fall in UK oilseed rape production coincides with poor harvests in southern Europe, as well as the ongoing impact of war on sunflower crops in Ukraine. Domestic and commercial cooking oil prices are therefore expected to rise in the coming months.
According to the Met Office the UK temporarily recorded over 445mm of rain this winter, which is 129% of the average between 1991 and 2020. It was particularly wet in north-east Scotland where farming is common, but the effect has been significant everywhere. .
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Colin Chappell, an arable farmer from Lincolnshire, describes the situation as “very hit and miss”.
“It has had a huge impact on us,” he said. “We went through the winter with practically nothing drilled, and while it is now dry enough to plant some fields some of them are so bad I don’t think they will be drilled this year.”
Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU, said there was a “real risk” that the price of bread, beer and biscuits could rise as the poor harvest led to higher costs and more imports. Shippers warn that the latter will become a more expensive process anyway after the introduction of new Brexit border rules which come into force today.
The new rules include mandatory inspections of goods and additional paperwork requirements that will affect hundreds of thousands of shipments of “medium risk” products that include fresh and frozen meat and fish, dairy products, and eggs
The Cold Chain Federation (CCF), which represents operators who bring 20,000 lorry loads of fresh and frozen produce into the UK from Europe every week, expects many suppliers to give’ the best to export to the UK at all – especially small artisan producers. Those who remain could see up to £1,000 added to the cost of a single lorry, and it is likely that a significant proportion of those costs will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
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“We can also expect an increase in costs and food waste as a result of unnecessary delays, disruption and paperwork confusion, as cold chain operators and their customers in the EU are still waiting for clarity in a number of areas about what will be required for them to actually do it,” CCF chief executive Phil Pluck warned last month. “We are still waiting to hear from the government about how some key parts of the new process will work, and we have serious concerns about the readiness of the border control posts.”
The new system has been delayed five times since Brexit and there is still much uncertainty about the scale and cost of inspections due to problems with computer systems at the border. Only higher risk goods will be checked initially, but there is no definitive list confirming which items fall into this category or a timetable for when others will be added.
William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, sums it up succinctly with his comment that, although the government has consulted on the new changes being introduced, it “chooses not to listen” with quantity and the scale of the costs showing “barely. consider the interests of either businesses or consumers”.
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“A flat rate fee for bringing most animal and plant products into the UK is a blow to small and medium-sized importers,” said Mr Bain. “It’s also a big concern for retailers, cafes and restaurants.
“Importing a small consignment of goods with just five different meat products, poultry, eggs, milk or some fish in the ‘medium risk’ category will now face a bill of £145 per package under these proposals.
“The government should immediately exempt companies in the trusted trader scheme from these payments which would give some relief to many smaller businesses. But in the long term, these checks and costs should be removed by reaching an agri-food deal with the EU, something we have consistently called for.”
Little can be done now to reduce the impact of increasingly severe weather, at least in the short term in the next few years. Surely then it is sensible to be responsible for what is within human control by drawing up trade agreements that eliminate unnecessary costs.
