Achi news desk-
A bruising few weeks for the government ends, inevitably, with an uneasy truce. Little by little the speculation about the Conservatives’ exploits, plots and putts has receded. Apparently, the rebels’ latest gambit, to tempt party moderates with the hope of premiering Penny Mordaunt, melted away on contact with reality.
So it was left to Rishi Sunak in Wednesday’s 1922 Conservative backbench committee to conjure up a new sense of unity and purpose. The prime minister reportedly told MPs he was “angry” about the effect conspiracies were having on his political fortunes. He remains determined, suggested in subsequent briefings, not to let a minority trend hijack his government.
But Conservative MPs were soon reminded of the brutal political reality beat table furiously was intended to drown out. A new Thursday morning TiGov the opinion poll fell, revealing once again the extent of the malice of the Conservatives. Rishi Sunak’s party had fallen one point to a paltry 19 per cent share of the national vote, placing it 25 points behind Labor — which was still strong on 44 per cent.
The big story of the poll, however, was Reform UK’s best score yet: the new-look Brexit Party clocked in at 15 per cent, just four points behind the Conservatives.
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This main fact is traumatic enough for those of a pro-Sunak persuasion. But also consider the basic data: reform is ahead of the Conservative Party in the North (from 18 per cent to 17 per cent). The party also leads the Tories among men, beating Labor and the Conservatives among “leave” voters in the 2016 EU referendum, and is just two points behind Rishi Sunak’s party in England (17 per cent to 19 hundred).
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The data paints a picture of a real political massacre.
The reaction that arose from Conservative ranks was therefore predictable — and immediate. “The Party leadership may or may not have a plan”, lamented former chief Brexit negotiator Lord Frost. “[But] what is clear is that the current strategy is not working and the situation is getting worse not better”.
The nature of the Faragist beast
Step back, and the threat that Reform poses to Rishi Sunak is of a very different nature to what former Prime Minister David Cameron faced in the form of UKIP between 2010-2015. Then, under a new government led by the Conservatives, UKIP leader Nigel Farage campaigned passionately on one issue: the UK leaving the EU. He picked up many disgruntled Tories along the way – including a couple of MPs.
The threat posed by the Reform party, after 14 years of Conservative government, is at once wider and less ephemeral. Richard Tice’s party, unlike UKIP, has no clear single issue; instead, Reform higher-ups have deftly called the party a receptacle for those who harbor all sorts of grievances, albeit typically and loosely directed at the “establishment”. In doing so, Tice has declared his intention to “destroy” the Conservative Party – rather than simply molding its political outlook or forcing an issue to raise his agenda.
Of course, we cannot treat Reform voters as a monolith or draw the reductive conclusion that its voter base has internalized Tice’s rhetoric. However, given that Reform’s raison d’être is quite different from that of UKIP, and that it appears in a period of obvious decline from the Conservatives, it follows that support for the party is more sticky.
As such, TiGovA poll suggests that Conservative voters could be slipping into the Reform container relatively easily. But perhaps these voters are a little less elastic in their behavior when it comes to the journey back from Reform to the Conservatives. The Rubicon, for some voters at least, is crossed as soon as their choice for Reform is realised. They have then joined the Tice Conservative demolition project.
In this way, the basic trends TiGovData, along with the surrounding context, strongly supports Frost’s conclusion that “the situation is getting worse”. But how much worse – and how long can we expect these trends to continue?
Reform-Conservative transition: a real possibility?
First, let’s acknowledge the caveats and, in turn, the optimistic picture for those of the Conservative persuasion. As things stand, TiGov only the second pollster to place Rishi Sunak’s party below 20 percent of the national vote share—the other is People Vote, which has so far been treated as an outlier. At the other end of the spectrum, Survival a save placing the Conservatives at 26 per cent. And Judgment, We Think, BMG a More Common placing Rishi Sunak’s party at 25 percent.
On top of this, Reform put significant resources into the recent Wellingborough by-election, but only won 13 per cent and finished third. This 13 per cent in Wellingborough, while worthy of Reform’s national polling performance at the time, is likely to reflect underperformance given that protest parties usually outperform national expectations in by-elections. On top of this, UKIP recorded 20 per cent in Wellingborough in 2015, suggesting that Reform UK is still falling short of the glorious electoral heights of its Conservative right predecessor. And the turnout in the by-election was low, meaning that Reform UK’s active political base should really have been overrepresent in the results. Then in Rochdale, after Labor dropped its candidate and the Conservatives and Lib Dems plowed on with little effort and resources, Reform finished a paltry sixth with 6.3 per cent.
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Regardless, whether or not Reform’s polling performance is borne out by voter action at the ballot box, the immediate strength of the party’s recent rise remains unchanged. Indeed, if Richard Tice’s outfit prevails over the Conservative Party even once between now and the next general election, the political impact would be seismic—and, as far as Rishi Sunak is concerned, disastrous. For any opposition party, voting is its “currency of credibility”; surpassing the Conservatives would give Reform, caveats notwithstanding, real legitimacy as a political force.
So, how could we get to this point? Well, it’s no surprise that the most obvious route to a Reform-Conservative crossover runs through Nigel Farage’s future actions. The former UKIP leader enjoys teasing Westminster about whether he has any continuing political ambitions — and the prospect of a return to Farage rightly has Conservative MPs reeling.
Poll in January They found that the return of Farage would increase the share of the Reform vote by 3 points — from 11 per cent at the time to 14 per cent. Of course, a great deal has changed since January, not least the prominence of Reform and its voting status; but Farage, one can reasonably guess, is a Reform booster waiting to happen. Furthermore, such polls do not account for the increased media coverage that Reform would garner on Farage’s return, or the other potential multiplier implications: such as further MP defections or even high profile endorsements in the media.
On top of this, s TiGov vote for the Telegraph on Friday found that 50 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters had a positive view of Nigel Farage, compared to just 40 per cent for Rishi Sunak. Quite simply, Farage is a living, staggering existential threat to the Conservative Party.
The return of Farage – if not as leader of Reform, then as campaign chief or press conference headliner – could completely invigorate Sunak’s ailing political proposition. A subsequent Reform surge in the polls would put the party on the brink of an overlap with the Conservatives.
With Farage waiting in the wings, then, Reform has more ability to boost his ratings than Sunak has to wipe them out. But this story is also bigger than Farage. Reform, at present, lacks the campaigning infrastructure and political machinery that once powered UKIP’s successes—a fact that may explain its recent underperformance. It means that Reform has other avenues to make a Conservative crossover possible, beyond recalling its prince across the country GB News studio.
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If we ever approach the point of a Reform-Conservative makeover, Rishi Sunak would face a political cataclysm. The likely response from No. 10 rebels would put recent rolling briefings – which some practitioners refer to as their “if*** grid” – to shame.
The Conservative right, in its “five families” formation or some other, would lead the backlash. The New Conservative clique has for some time been calling for an ideological change under Sunak, in part, to prevent Reform from progressing. In response to Lee Anderson’s absence, a joint statement from co-chairs Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates called on No 10 to “urgently change course”. “That means commitments on crime, immigration, tax, skills, welfare, housing, defense and the NHS that go far beyond what we are currently proposing”, they added .
On a Reform-Conservative point, Kruger and Cates would claim that their argument was justified. The cyclical dynamics of Conservative psychodrama would once again grip Westminster politics, as these claims are contested across all manner of media forums. Rishi Sunak’s already ill authority over his party would disappear; he would, on this point of course, vote lower than Liz Truss. If the Conservative Party is relegated to third place in the polls, it follows that other political rules — such as not removing a party leader a few months away from an election — would likely be suspended. Regicide would become a very real prospect.
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But are the New Conservatives correct in their analysis that Reform voters are simply willing Rishi Sunak, or some possible successor, to seduce them?
Firstly, taking into account my theory that the Reform vote is more sticky than many suggest, ideological change alone would not be enough to solve the problem at hand. Reform is not just a place for “shaking” Conservatives, but a new home for voters willing to face the destruction of the party. It is far from clear how many Conservative-Reform changers can be saved.
Second, tracking further to the right would alienate other aspects of the party’s fractured coalition of voters. The request of the Conservative Party to go after voters who have left their tent — many for good — would come at the expense of voters who remain in it or who are appeased rather more easily.
A final point to make is therefore this: whether we see a Reform-Conservative cross poll before the next election, Rishi Sunak is still trapped. Number 10 is being pulled in completely opposite directions — politically, ideologically and electorally geographically. Reform UK is already stealing voters away from the Conservatives and, in turn, destabilizing the party’s messaging in an election year. The New Conservatives are already making the muted argument that the party can eliminate Reform with a wider messaging shift.
Farage, therefore, can be content to preach from his own GB News the pulpit and Reform voting ceiling might be 15 percent – but Rishi Sunak’s dire dynamism remains the same.
Josh Self is the Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Twitter here.
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