Achi news desk-
Leo Varadkar shocked Ireland by resigning as taoiseach (prime minister) in an emotional speech which saw him claim he was leaving for “personal and political” reasons. However, he has not cited any examples of either, leaving us somewhat in the dark about his departure.
Varadkar’s decision to leave office once a successor is agreed came as a surprise, even to many in his own party, the Christian Democrat-right Fine Gael (Party of the Irish). Varadkar had said he would resign before he was 50, but, at 45, he is leaving well before his self-imposed deadline. Varadkar was seen as young and enthusiastic – and as an openly gay man of Indian-Irish descent, his rise was a symbol of a changing Ireland.
Varadkar was marked for political success early on. He joined parliament in 2007 and has been in the cabinet since 2011. He played a key role in referendums legalizing gay marriage and liberalizing access to abortion and divorce. Becoming Taoiseach the year after the 2016 Brexit referendum, he is credited with ensuring that Irish interests are represented by the EU in the difficult negotiations between London and Brussels. But in the process he became something of a malign figure among Northern Ireland unionists.
In his latest stint as Taoiseach from December 2022, he has been at the helm of a booming economy and budget surpluses far removed from the austerity that characterized his early years in government.
However, Varadkar’s electoral fortunes were less convincing. His party lost nearly a third of its seats in the 2020 general election, and only remained in office by governing with its historic rival Fianna Fáil and the Green Party. He also lost all five by-elections his party contested during his premiership.
Why resign, and why now?
Recently, Varadkar’s coalition government lost surprisingly badly in two referendums aimed at liberalizing the national constitution, which both had expected to win. A third of his party’s TDs (MPs) have also announced that they will not contest the next general election.
This paints a picture of a government that is at odds with public sentiment and an internally unstable party. That said, a renewal of the current Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition is possible as Sinn Féin’s poll leaders have no obvious coalition partners. Even if Fine Gael were to return to government, however, it would likely have a smaller majority in parliament.
Read more: Irish referendum: what went wrong for the government and why a double defeat draws a line under a decade of constitutional reform
Varadkar, who has already been Taoiseach twice and party leader since 2017, may not have the energy for another election campaign. But his successor must be on his feet immediately if Fine Gael is to return to winning ways in time for local elections in June. A general election must be held by March 2025 but it can be even sooner after this resignation.
Resigning now gives Varadkar’s successor a year to get their message across before the general election, but that has left them in the lurch for June. Perhaps the calculation is to let the electorate vent frustration about ongoing problems with housing costs and more recently, migration, before the next general election.
For Varadkar, personally, there are few high-profile jobs available in the short term, so he may take some time away from the spotlight. However, the upcoming European elections may offer opportunities if some of the top jobs in Europe are up for grabs.
The European elections are expected to see the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) win the most seats, a group that includes Varadkar’s Fine Gael. Often this gives the group the opportunity to appoint someone to the role of president of the European Commission (the president does not have to be an MEP).
Since 2019 that role has been held by a German, Ursula von der Leyen of the EPP, who was supported for the job by compatriot Angela Merkel, also of the EPP. However, much has changed since then. Germany is now led by Olaf Scholz whose party is in the centre-left Socialists and Democrats group and may not want a national rival to hold such a high-profile post. Similarly, other EU countries may prefer a non-German leader as countries compete for jobs and are wary of too much power in the hands of France and Germany.
Ireland has never had a commission president and is one of only nine EU countries currently led by the EPP. Conveniently for Ireland, this shortlist does not include European heavyweights France, Germany, Italy or Spain. If it plays its cards right, Fine Gael could leverage itself as the compromise option for that post.
It would be unwise to make firm predictions here, especially as Poland and Sweden are led by EPP members – but this would be ideal for Fine Gael. Varadkar’s claim that he has no interest in an EU role should be taken with a large pinch of salt. He cannot campaign openly against Von der Leyen but in reality, few politicians would refuse an opportunity to take his job.
Ireland’s youngest (newest) Prime Minister?
With other potential candidates declaring their intention not to contest to succeed Varadkar, Simon Harris, the minister for further and higher education, research, innovation and science, looks set to become Taoiseach. A vote could take place at the party’s conference in April, but as the only candidate at the time of writing, Harris may have wrapped things up long before then. At 37, Harris would beat Varadkar’s record as the youngest taoiseach (he was 38) and was seen as a strong performer in the media.
Alamy/PA/Nick Bradshaw
Harris is young, but has been a TD since 2011 and a minister since 2014, specifically serving as health minister during the pandemic. He will be leading a party that is trashing experienced TDs across the country, which will surely hurt them in the election.
The opposition parties are already calling for the general election to be brought forward, so Harris must align with Fianna Fáil and the Greens to push for a longer time frame. Otherwise a mini election could be on the cards.
