Achi news desk-
By Russell Bruce
Sunak has doubled down on his ‘leading Rwandan policy’ tied to the mast of a sinking ship. For an administration with many ministers the offspring of immigrants who came here by boat the policy and the decision to push its policy to its limits flies in the face of rational political thinking. To the far right it doesn’t go far enough, but the moderate One Nation Tories are also unhappy as they try to choose which bits of Human Rights they will try to ignore. Policy is either compatible with International Human Rights Law (OHCHR) or it is a pick and mix of bitter sweets that does not belong to democracy.
The costs of the Sunak deal in Rwanda are staggering and economic madness. So far the UK has given over £240 million with a further £50 million planned for sending up to 200 people by plane to Rwanda. That is a cost of £1.5 million per person – if it is actually sent. If this actually happened Rwanda would be notified of any increase in numbers. The prospects for Sunak’s legislation are considered 50/50, which is probably optimistic.
Sunak has been driven to an impractical strategy by his right wing who do not like his administration turning to the centrist views of those on the same green benches. The policy is a hangover from the Johnson administration, which would seem to be the ideal reason to drop it, but it has failed because of those tough hard votes that have messed up the administrations of his predecessors from May to Johnson to Truss. The outcome of a tired and finally conflicted party is probably worse now than under his predecessors. Starring Armageddon in full frontal mode is the definitive analysis of Tory affliction in total self-destructive eruption.
What the polls say they don’t always agree
Where party support comes from is what polling analysis shows. Broadly across Europe there is a movement to the right by the working class. A recent poll in the UK shows that large numbers of working class voters are moving to Reform, mostly men, or deciding not to vote. This worries the Tories in Red wall seats – and indeed Starmer’s Labour. In the South of England the Tories’ concern is that former Tory voters will vote for the Liberal Democrats. The relatively better off and the better educated are more likely to vote for center and left parties than the working class. That’s why the dilemma the Tories are facing is getting lost.
But strangely the polls are moving slightly with the gap between Labor and the Tories narrowing from a long-standing 20%. In the last two Delta opinion polls the Labor leader was 14% then 15% which is not statistically significant. Both opinion polls in November and December showed a moderate increase in the Liberal Democrat vote from 11 to 13%. Others amount to almost 20% on the two samples which of course include the SNP and the Party who will both win seats. Despite a large increase in the Reform vote it is unlikely that they can win a seat as they lack the consolidation in some areas which helps the Lib Dems.
The picture in Savanta is fairly similar with insignificant changes in the vote of the Labor Party and the Conservatives in the two opinion polls in November and the narrowing of the Labor number leading to 15% in the vote last December. YouGov gives Labor a better picture in their weighted figures for those most likely to vote in their late November and 6/7 December polls finding a 22% lead for Labour. The Scottish sub-sample gives the SNP a 4% lead over Labor for Westminster.
Looking more closely at the analysis of voting intentions – across the UK – the Tories have a 5% lead over Labor with lower social income groups (C2DE) and Labor has a 9% lead with ABC1, which shows that the working classes have moved to the right to the right. all of Europe and in the United States. In older age groups those intending to vote Tory are steadily increasing and Labour’s share is falling. The Tories have an 11% lead over Labor with over 65s. The Greens are on 7% in the two latest YouGov polls (6% in Scotland). This raises the question of where these votes are going as most constituencies are unlikely to have a Green candidate. As the Scottish YouGov sub-sample gives Reform and the Greens a share of the vote the 1% for Others will be split between Alba and any other minor party.
