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David Phillips, Associate Director at the body, also questioned some of the calculations used in the 35 page policy prospectus.
The comments could be embarrassing for the party, with the First Minister repeatedly using the IFS analysis of Labour’s spending plans to criticize Sir Keir Starmer.
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The SNP manifesto made a number of calls for the next UK Government to increase spending in a number of areas.
As for the NHS, the SNP argues that an additional £16 billion for the health services in England would create an additional £1.6 billion for the Scottish Government.
However, Mr Phillips points out that “because some of the increase in spending in the rest of the UK would be funded by income tax increases that would not apply in Scotland, the Scottish Government’s own funding would not increase as much as the SNP. seems to assume.” They are also calling for at least £28bn to be invested in the green economy, an “essential guarantee” of £20bn in the benefits system, along with annual increases in support for housing costs and the abolition of the two-child limit.
The SNP argues that the cost of all this could be met by big tax rises across the UK for higher earners, extra economic growth from the UK rejoining the EU in the coming parliament, and extra borrowing .
The party argues that if the rest of the UK matched Scotland’s tax rates, the exchequer could add an estimated £16.5bn to its coffers in 2028-29.
The party also claims that the UK rejoining the EU would see an annual boost of £30bn to economic growth.
In his analysis, Mr Phillips writes: “The SNP manifesto calls for an increase in spending plans for the whole of the UK.
“This is to avoid the need to cut spending on vulnerable areas, and to increase spending on, in particular, the NHS, working age benefits, foreign aid and green investment.
“They argue that the cost of this could be met by tax rises across the UK, additional economic growth from the UK rejoining the EU in the upcoming parliament, and additional borrowing.
“However, in its call for independence for Scotland, the SNP ignores the potential blow to economic growth from leaving the UK, and the major fiscal challenges that an independent Scotland would have to face immediately .”
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He questioned the SNP’s calculations on additional spending for the NHS, saying “as some of the increase in spending in the rest of the UK would be funded by income tax increases that would not apply in Scotland, we the Scottish Government’s own funding would increase as much as the SNP assumes.”
Mr Phillips says the SNP’s tax plans would see income tax for someone in England, Wales and Northern Ireland earning £50,000 a year rise by £1,600, while those earning £125,000 would see an increase of £5,200.
He also says that “in the seemingly unlikely event that the UK rejoins the EU within the next parliament” the party’s suggestion that it would lead to an annual boost of £30bn to growth would not be ” is an unreasonably high figure for the ultimate boost. revenue.”
Mr Philips also says there is some merit in the SNP’s plans for further tax devolution to Scotland.
“Devolution of income tax on savings and dividends is a sensible idea, as is devolution of National Insurance contributions,” he writes. “However, devolution of all income tax rules would add complexity for some taxpayers and the tax authorities.
“And VAT is a particularly difficult tax to devolve, potentially creating trade barriers between Scotland and the rest of the UK, with reforms to VAT in Scotland also complicating the system.”
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