Achi news desk-
Colorado State University has released their first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
While a number of institutions release season previews, the program at Colorado State University is among the longest-running and most storied. This will mark the 41st year that the programme, started by Professor Bill Gray in 1984, has released a forecast. Gray died in 2016, but the program continues under a number of professors, research scientists and PhD candidates.
CSU’s forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is very active.
It calls for 23 named storms, 11 strengthening to hurricanes, and 5 reaching major hurricane strength (category three or higher). These are all well above the averages for the season.
The main factors in this year’s forecast include:
- A transition for El Nino to La Nina this summer making favorable wind conditions for the development of storms over the Atlantic.
- Warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are at or near record highs. Warm waters fuel tropical storms and hurricanes.
- The trend for warm Atlantic waters is forecast to continue through the hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30.
Continued warmth, and near-record warmth in parts of the Atlantic Ocean basin, is given as one of the reasons for a more active hurricane season.
The program publishes their next forecast update on June 11. You can read more about the CSU forecast here.
No matter how lively the season, it only takes one powerful, stressful storm to turn it into a bad one. Hurricane Fiona in 2022, the costliest tropical source storm in Canadian history, occurred in a very average hurricane season. You can find resources to help plan for hurricane season here.
