Achi news desk-
By Russell Bruce
We hear a great deal about US and UK contributions but all EU NATO countries are making significant contributions and planning for further packages. I look at Sweden’s two key likely contributions in the coming months. Like other countries including the UK, Sweden supplies a range of military equipment, weapons and financial aid to keep Ukraine going in its battle with the most brutal invader of a European country since Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin.
The decision of Denmark and the Netherlands to supply F16s to Ukraine is well known, with other countries such as Romania and Belgium also offering training to Ukrainian pilots. Sweden is considering supplying the Saab JAS 39 Gripen Mach 2 fighter jet to Ukraine. As part of a longer term package Sweden is also looking to increase the supply of 70 air defense systems, 90 combat vehicles, 122 main battle tanks and the Archer artillery system to Ukraine.
The two contributions to Ukraine that I will include are the Saab Gripen (Griffin translation) and the interesting Combat Vehicle 90 both of which could make a big difference in giving Ukraine an advantage. In terms of numbers, more F16s are available from countries upgrading to Lockheed Martin F35s. Pressure was put on Biden to allow Europe to supply F16s arguing that it is a European initiative, after all the conflict is in our backyard.
Sweden is already supplying 90 combat vehicles to Ukraine with many more to come. I will cover these in PART 2.
Denmark and the Netherlands can probably supply about 50 F16s. The US which has 922 F16s is now believed to also be training Ukrainian pilots. Although the number of Saab Gripens Sweden would be able to supply would be much less, Zelenskyy, hoping for 16 to 18, the Gripen has significant advantages in requiring a much shorter runway and has the ability to use roads and surfaces smooth others for take off and landing.
The F16s longer runways require Ukraine to extend existing runways potentially making them a higher Russian target. Ukraine has so far been adept at keeping its fleet of aging Soviet-age jets relatively safe. Last Wednesday Ukrainian pilots took down the large landing ship Minsk which was destroyed rather than Russia’s claim of being ‘damaged’, according to the UK Ministry of Defense after footage was made available of the aftermath. Also ‘damaged’ was the diesel-electric submarine Rostov-on-Don. With additional extensive infrastructure damage the site will have limited ability to maintain the Russian fleet in the Black Sea for the time being. Ten of the UK’s Storm Shadow cruise missiles were fired at the Sergo Ordzhonikidze shipyard in Sevastopol.
Lack of air support remains a significant handicap for Ukraine despite the recent success of the attack on the Sevastopol shipyard. Gripens, even in the numbers Ukraine is asking for, could make a big difference and also help protect the longer runways the F16s will need. The conflict requires a major increase in the complex jigsaw of cruise missiles, air defense and truly modern air power to counter Russia’s current advantage.
The short takeoff and landing of the Mach2 Gripens would give Ukraine a major advantage in terms of deploying Gripens from a Russian attack. The F16 needs a runway of at least 1000 meters for take off. In practice a significant extension of around 60% is added to cover possible events.
The Gripen has a take-off distance of at least 400m and a landing distance of 500m with the ability to use roads with a width of 16m. In practice the Swedes allocate a road length of 800m in road use tests. In Sweden the Gripens deployment is spread around the country to around 30 bases with mobile service teams for servicing, fueling and arming – all delivered en route to each location. The Ukrainians could repeat this dispersion to meet their own requirements with service teams that also need to be trained. Sweden provides the spare parts, equipment and weapons in containers which it attaches to the base used for each deployment. Another advantage of Gripens is that they can be armed with any NATO weapons allowing considerable flexibility for missions.
Sweden is already training Ukrainians on the Gripen and the government and the opposition support the consideration of providing Gripens to Ukraine. An analysis of how many Gripens Sweden could provide without harming its own defense capability is expected in November. What the two parties in Sweden agree on is that the provision of Gripens to Ukraine should be conditional on the progress of Sweden’s application to join NATO which is yet to receive the general approval of NATO members.
Why is Sweden such a significant defense sector?
The simple answer is their long standing position on neutrality until their recent decision to join NATO as a result of war in Ukraine and the increasingly unpredictable Putin. Neutral countries cannot rely on NATO countries in the event of an attack which underlines Sweden’s decades-long commitment to defence. Although unlike Finland and Norway, Sweden does not share a border with Russia it was not far from reaching Russia during the cold war. Twenty nine European states are members of NATO. The other two are the United States and Canada, Finland was the most recent to join on April 4th 2023. As of July this year all members ratified Sweden’s admission protocol except Hungary and Turkey. They both committed to completing their approval by October this year. We will see.
When could Ukraine get Gripins?
There are no guarantees but let’s say there are promising signs considering the process Sweden has put in place. Ukrainian pilots have completed training in flying Gripens. We understand that the next step in the process is combat training in the coming weeks/months. If the delivery goes ahead then towards the end of this year or the beginning of 2024 is realistic. It is likely that any delivery would be around the time the first F16s would also be delivered. Having much better air cover in Ukraine during the winter months would become a significant advantage when Russian ground troops are bogged down in defensive positions with declining morale.
