Achi news desk-
Climate change, and specifically higher temperatures, could cause food prices to increase by 3.2% per year, according to a new study by researchers in Germany. As climate change continues to worsen, this price inflation will mean that more and more people around the world do not have a varied and healthy diet, or simply do not have enough food.
The new analysis shows that global warming could cause food price inflation to increase between 0.9 and 3.2 percentage points per year by 2035. The same warming will cause a smaller increase in overall inflation (between 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points), therefore there will be a higher proportion Household income would need to be spent on buying food.
This impact will be felt all over the world, by high and low income countries alike, but nowhere more so than in the global south. As with the various other consequences of climate change, Africa will be worst affected despite contributing little to its causes.
Our own research on food security in Ghana, west Africa, gives an idea of what price inflation might mean in practice. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describes west Africa as a “hotspot” for climate change, with models predicting extreme rises in temperature and less rainfall. With more than half the population directly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, Ghana is particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Lek Changply / shutterstock
We recently carried out a study in Mion, a rural area in the north of the country. We spoke to almost 400 people, of whom a very single one told us that they had experienced some level of food insecurity in the previous 12 months. Around 99% said climate change was at least partly to blame.
In addition, 62% were moderately or severely food insecure, with 26% experiencing severe food insecurity (going without food for a whole day). These percentages are much worse than Ghana’s national averages (39% and 6% respectively), but similar to some of the poorest West African countries such as Togo, Burkina Faso and Benin.
We also conducted a similar study among refugees from neighboring Burkina Faso who fled across the border into the upper eastern region of Ghana. Again, 100% had experienced food insecurity.
Mion does not suffer from sudden hunger, and nothing particularly unusual has happened to cause this food insecurity. This situation is considered a “normal phenomenon” due to the effects of climate change.
Climate-related food inflation can be divided into two interrelated problems.
Changing seasons, pests and diseases
The first is that the same effects of climate change that cause inflation are already making food more difficult to obtain. For example, higher temperatures can cause long-standing and predictable farming seasons to change and therefore hamper crop production.
Other consequences may include increased outbreaks of pests and diseases that deplete livestock and food reserves, and heat stress to already poor roads that make access to rural communities more difficult.
All these factors push prices higher and reduce the purchasing power of the affected households. The drivers of food inflation are already exacerbating food insecurity.
The second part of this problem is the increase in inflation itself. An annual price increase of 3% would mean that households are less able to buy what they need.
It is likely that they would need to compromise on quality or even culturally important foods. This in turn makes people more vulnerable to disease and other health problems. Malnutrition is the leading cause of immunodeficiency worldwide.
In Ghana, we found that those who reported more knowledge about climate change were more likely to be food secure. This is despite the fact that few people have any formal education. This is evidence that affected populations are well aware of the change in temperature and the unpredictability of the climate, and may be participating in proactive mitigation practices.
Those with no education are more likely to be involved in climate sensitive occupations such as farming, and therefore would be more directly exposed. Educating people about climate change could provide some capacity to adapt to it, and therefore increase food security.
Climate change is a famine risk multiplier for those entrenched and vulnerable populations. In light of this, 134 countries at COP28 signed a declaration to incorporate food systems into their climate action, to ensure that everyone has enough to eat in light of climate change.
The researchers behind the new study suggest that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could limit any effects on the global economy. We also suggest that diversifying economies would provide some protection to those communities that depend on agriculture for their food and income.
Government intervention could also ensure financial security and nutritional support for those vulnerable to being caught in the cycle of poverty due to inflation and reduced accessibility to food.
