Achi news desk-
The upcoming flu season is predicted to be as bad or worse than 2023, with one in three people tipped to get a cold or flu.
Flu cases are already double the weekly rate of last year’s sick season, but one epidemiologist says it’s unclear whether cases are peaking early or climbing to record levels.
The flu will strike at least 300,000 Australians in 2023, as the illness takes hold in the freer post-covid pandemic world.
Cold and flu reports, medicine sales data, weather forecasts and vaccine rates have been used in modeling by Codral Cold & Flu in partnership with health consultancy IQVIA.
Principal Dr Sashi Anantham said the flu season is starting much earlier than previous years.
“This year, based on the current level of medicine sales we are seeing, we expect to see a year that is at least as strong as 2023, if not more,” said Dr Anantham.
Newcastle and Liverpool in NSW and Southport in Queensland are expected to be hardest hit, according to the modelling.
“It shouldn’t be a major concern, it’s largely just an inconvenience. Time off from work, children at home from daycare etc. It’s really a matter of being prepared to deal with all that inconvenience,” says Dr Anantham.
University of South Australia biostatistics professor Adrian Esterman said colds were difficult to track and predict, because most people did not go to the doctor for the common cold, so comprehensive data was not available.
Flu cases were “very high at the moment” and double the weekly number for this time last year, the epidemiologist said, although it would be difficult to predict the number through the flu season.
“Last year’s doubling (of flu cases) doesn’t suggest it will double (overall), it could be peaking early,” he said.
Retail data, as in the modelling, was a “reasonable” marker for the severity of the cold and flu season, “but that doesn’t tell you who has the flu, a cold or RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), the professor said .
Young children, the elderly and people who were pregnant needed to be vaccinated against the flu, he said.
A good source of data for flu-like illnesses was the Australian Sentinel Practice Research Network, Mr Esterman said. The network of GPs and registered nurses reports flu-like illnesses and publishes reports every two weeks.
However, the latest data is only up to February 1. A spokesperson for ASPREN said the March data should have been available to the public, but did not then respond to a request for the latest report.
The nation’s cold and flu capitals:
1. Newcastle, NSW
2. Liverpool, NSW
3. Southport, QLD
4. Blacktown, NSW
5. Hornsby, NSW
6. Hurstville, NSW
7. Hillarys, WA
8. Tamworth, NSW
9. Orange, NSW
10. Fremantle, WA
Areas outlook for most cold and flu symptoms:
NSW: Newcastle, Liverpool, Blacktown
Queensland: Southport, Cairns, Hervey Bay
South Australia: Clovelly Park, Torrensville, Seaford
Tasmania: Launceston, Lindisfarne, Sandy Bay
Victoria: Warrnambool, Baxter, Prahran
Western Australia: Hillarys, Fremantle, Mirrabooka
