Achi news desk-
The Bute House Agreement is again in the public spotlight as the political parties prepare for the general election expected later this year.
This will be the first time that the SNP and the Greens will campaign against each other at a national level while formally working together in government and the dynamic between the two parties is being closely watched by political observers.
The Greens stood in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election back in October. But such was the extent of Labour’s victory at that time that the decision of the less pro-independence party to stand made little difference to the result.
Labor took 17,845 votes, the SNP 8399 and the Greens 601. The SNP would have been heavily defeated anyway even if the Greens had decided not to enter the race and all their votes had go to the SNP.
SNP politicians will be crossing their fingers that the voting behavior in Rutherglen will in no way be repeated anywhere in Scotland when the country goes to the polls this autumn and that the party can hold on to the big lead he took in 2019 over. its closest competitors.
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Unspun | Current relationship status between the SNP and the Scottish Greens? It’s complicated
But opinion polls published in recent months, including by YouGov today, suggest that any wish that the SNP will continue to prevail is unrealistic.
The latest opinion poll by YouGov put Labor two points ahead of the SNP in terms of Westminster voting intentions with the former party on 33% compared to 31% for the latter.
But a major survey by the same company that provided detailed seat-by-seat research brought very serious news to the SNP predicting that the party would fall to 19 seats, a significant drop on the 48 won in 2019.
According to that opinion poll, most of the middle belt would turn red with the SNP holding on to seats in Stirling, Perthshire and the Highlands.
Against this change in the fortunes of the SNP, the news that their junior partners in government would stand against them in 32 out of 57 seats was not, to put it mildly, welcome.
Tensions are very much in the air.
Yesterday the First Minister of Wales declared that a vote for the Scottish Greens in the upcoming general election would be a “waste”.
Scottish Greens MP Ross Greer hit back accusing the SNP of being “unwilling to step in when needed to protect our common future”.
His comments then prompted SNP MSP Fergus Ewing to renew his call for his party to withdraw from the Bute House deal – and to do so before the general election campaign gets fully underway.
Read more:
Fergus Ewing: How can we be partners with a party whose leaders regularly abuse us?
“Our Green ‘partners’ are now urging voters not to vote for the SNP. They are fighting seats against us, which will cost many of our MPs their seats,” wrote Mr Ewing.
“This dire deal is destroying the party… Message to Humza: “Sorry friend: Failing to end this terrible deal is political madness and electoral suicide.”
So will the deal fall apart in the coming weeks?
Apparently the sense around Holyrood is not “like”.
However strongly Mr Ewing wants the Prime Minister to call time on the agreement, the general feeling is that it is likely to continue until the Westminster election, which will probably be held in October, if the suggestions of the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt right.
The problem for Mr Yousaf is that he has staked his bid for leadership on the agreement with the Greens continuing and they cannot withdraw from it now without being seen as weak and panicked.
Some in the party believe that the day of reckoning for Mr Yousaf and the Bute House Agreement will be polling day itself.
The SNP conference last October agreed that winning a majority of Scotland’s 57 Westminster seats next year – ie 29 – would constitute a mandate for independence negotiations.
That number sets the mark for victory for the party, with the implication being that Mr Yousaf’s position as leader – and the Bute House Agreement – would be secure if the SNP reached or exceeded that number.
But what if the SNP does not win 29 or more seats come the election? What then?
One report in the Sunday Times this month suggested that Mr Yousaf would remain as party leader anyway.
“Humza is going nowhere after the general election,” the SNP loyalist told the paper.
And a more critical figure in the party agreed: “Humza will not resign and there is no one in Holyrood who will expel him.”
It is not a view shared by others.
There is a feeling in the party that although a poor result might be understandable under the cloud of the ongoing Operation Branchform investigation, Mr Yousaf would have to go if disaster struck on election night.
On that mentality the SNP would then have 18 months for the party to launch afresh under a new leader, turn a leaf on the Sturgeon era and probably consign the Bute House Agreement to history.
