Achi news desk-
With Donald Trump leading in many of the polls for the upcoming US presidential election, his comments about global security and foreign policy must be taken seriously.
In February, Trump flippantly said he would encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted to Nato states that failed to pay their bills. In a subsequent interview on GB News this week he warned allies “not to take advantage” of the US.
Nowhere is this causing more concern than for the Baltic countries – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Not only does Trump sometimes say he wants to stop all US military aid to Ukraine, but Trump wants to undermine article 5 of the NATO agreement – the principle of collective defense – something that has become increasingly important in the wake of Russian aggression. British military sources worry that Trump’s comments will strengthen Putin’s resolve over Ukraine, and could lead to him advancing on even more territory.
Even before Trump emerged on the US political scene, the Baltic countries have been particularly concerned about Russia’s growing ambitions. After all, they have been invaded and occupied by Russia before, in 1940, and then forced to become part of the Soviet Union. There are plenty of people who can still remember life in the Soviet Union.
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Baltic states have been the loudest voices sounding the alarm about the existential threat posed by Russia, and all three countries increased their military spending to more than 2% of their GDP , and recently agreed to raise it. to 3%.
Building shared defenses
Amid growing security concerns, the defense ministers in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia also agreed in January to establish a common Baltic defense zone on their borders with Russia and Belarus. This would include building physical defensive structures such as bunkers.
Estonia will start building 600 bunkers in early 2025. The nations will also cooperate to develop missile artillery, and ensure that their equipment, ammunition and manpower are updated.
Soup/Alamy
Estonia has also doubled the size of its territorial defense force to 20,000 people, while Latvia has reintroduced conscription in 2023 after becoming the only Baltic state to end compulsory military service in 2006.
Latvia also plans to double the size of its armed forces to 61,000 by the year 2032. Meanwhile, Lithuania has made an agreement with Germany to allow a permanent brigade of 4,800 of its troops to be ready to fight on the Russian border by 2027.
Putin’s promise to Russian speakers
But given that Russia borders 14 countries, why are the Baltic states particularly concerned about their security? As well as being geographically close, a notable number of ethnic Russians live in the Baltic countries (5% in Lithuania; 25% in Estonia and 36% in Latvia. In the city of Narva in eastern Estonia, 95.7% of the population are native Russian speakers and 87.7% are ethnic Russians.
This is important as Putin has argued that having significant numbers of ethnic Russians living outside of Russia, due to the “catastrophic” dissolution of the Soviet Union, represents a “humanitarian disaster of epic proportions” as it leaves Russians broken into away from “their homeland” . Putin has promised to actively protect all “Russians” living abroad.
In particular, Putin has said he is concerned about how ethnic Russians are treated in the Baltics, noting that the deportation of ethnic Russians (most notably in Latvia where there have been recent changes to its immigration laws), is a threat to Russian national. safety.
The Kremlin has also protested the demolition of Soviet monuments in the Baltics, placing Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas on its wanted list for doing so.
But these claims about wanting to protect Russians abroad, are in fact just an excuse to justify an escalation with the Baltics, which will test the NATO alliance and destabilize the organization. So not only is it important that there are ethnic Russians living there – there are also strategic reasons that make them an easy target.
Even with the Baltic countries bolstering their troop numbers, Russia currently has 1.32 million active military personnel, and two million active reserves. Together this is more than the entire population of Lithuania of 2.8 million people, and much more than Estonia and Latvia which have populations of 1.3 million and 1.8 million people, respectively.
Read more: The EU should stop ‘westsplaining’ and listen to its smaller eastern members – they saw the Ukraine war coming
For Lithuania, which borders Belarus and the small Russian-run state of Kaliningrad, there are concerns that Russian forces could take over first, which would then physically isolate Lithuania from the rest of the Baltics. The Kaliningrad region has become increasingly militarized in recent years, with Iskander ballistic missiles and S-400 systems installed. With Trump suggesting he would weaken the US commitment to Nato if elected, there will be little stopping Putin from grabbing low-hanging fruit.
Nato’s current response force consists of around 40,000 troops, with plans to upgrade to 300,000 troops. But rapid reaction units may still be too slow to defend the Baltics against Russian forces because, ironically, moving large units, vehicles and ammunition across borders is bureaucratic and time-consuming. It would be important to have excellent information and move quickly, something that will be made more difficult with the US possibly opting out of its commitments.
Although Russia has plunged much of its resources into winning the Ukraine war, Putin still aims to expand Russian sovereignty across the post-Soviet states and effectively dismantle NATO, something Trump takes no issue with . As Russia has been ramping up its war machine, the Baltic states firmly believe that Russian aggression will not end in Ukraine, and that they could be next.
