Achi news desk-
YouGov’s MRP survey for The Times last week also made grim reading for the SNP, with Mr Yousaf’s party forecast to fall to 19 seats, a significant drop on the 48 it won in 2019. The pollster said that would sees Labor as “comfortably” the largest party in Scotland.
Announcing a new poll today, YouGov noted: “With our recent MRP showing Labor pushing the SNP into second place in terms of seats in Scotland, now the latest YouGov/Times Scotland voting intention survey shows Keir’s party Starmer slightly ahead of her nationalist rivals for the first time since the independence referendum in 2014.
“One in three Scots (33%) currently intend to vote Labor in the upcoming general election, putting the party ahead of the SNP (31%) by a small two points.”
The previous opinion poll in the YouGov series – held in October 2023 – had just one position ahead of Labour, namely 33% and 32% respectively, from the SNP.
Today’s research also revealed that the SNP lost a fifth (20%) of their voters in 2019 to Labour, and currently hold on to 66% of those who previously supported them.
It also showed that the Conservative vote share in Scotland had fallen by six points since October to 14% with the Reform Party gaining support from right-wing voters north of the Border, increasing their share of the vote by five points , from 2% to 7%.
The Tories only hold on to 54% of their voters in 2019, after losing 19% to Labor and 22% to Reform UK, the poll found.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are on 7% (+2) and the Greens on 5% (no change).
Holyrood voting intention
When it comes to the Holyrood constituency’s voting intention, the SNP are still holding on to the lead – albeit barely, according to the opinion poll.
“At the moment Humza Yousaf’s party is only two points ahead of Labour, namely 34% and 32% respectively. This is compared to the eight points obtained in October,” he said. .
“When it comes to the regional vote, the two parties are neck and neck, at 29% each. The two parties were also tied in the October poll (28%).”
“The Conservatives are a distant third in both polls, on 15-16%, while the Lib Dems are on 8-9%, while the Greens are on 9% of the regional vote and 4% of the constituency vote .”
Independence vote
The survey noted that “the story is static” when it comes to independence for Scotland.
“Currently 53% of Scots say they would vote No in a repeat of the 2014 referendum, compared to 47% who would vote Yes – this is the same split as last time we ask in September 2023,” he said.
