Achi news desk-
It seems like a dream now,
It was so long ago
Burning room so bright and
The town went so slow…
Eagles, ‘Whatever happened to Saturday night?’
Look, let’s start with the willfully naive take. Tasmanian Labor’s announcement on Sunday that Labor would not seek to form a minority government betrays a historic possibility and an acumen that could bring about real lasting change and make this a historic moment not only in the state but in the Westminster system.
That has been greeted with disappointment. Two-thirds of Tasmanians voted against the Liberal party, and it is a preferred choice, so there is no two-party preferred result to come in. Labor got 10 seats and they might go up to 11. The Greens got four, and they might go up to six. The two likely independents — Kristy Johnston and David O’Byrne — are progressives, and the third possibility, Craig Garland, is campaigning against everything the Lib Dems have been. done in the fields of fishing, forestry and elsewhere.
So a de facto growing majority is possible (although don’t over count the above, everyone is competing against everyone). And on the general principle of politics — seizure of power seizure of power seizure of power — it would have seemed possible to leave it open. The failure to do so has disappointed people across Tasmanian Labor and the left.
Indeed, Labor leader Rebecca White kept the gate open with her zen victory-concession speech in the beloved drawing room on Saturday night (saved, in years past, by various places). But that was only so Tasmanian Labor could talk to the ALP administration committee on Sunday morning, which would have repeated what was put in place after the Labour-Greens coalition in the 2010s: no ministries given to non-Labor members .
Yes, right, Tasmanian Labor is in an impossible position. Greens, independents etc happy as manure with a complex result, obviously. Liberal voters got their plurality. Labor voters yearn for the time when such a pluralistic majority could have been theirs. Some of them are more supporters of a major party government than they are of Labour. Some would walk across the aisle if Labor entered into any direct arrangement with the Greens.
Then there are the internal divisions. Tasmanian Labor is currently dominated by, and rightly so, the SDA. Key members would much rather see the Liberals hold on for another term than let the Greens come close to governing. They would also be dependent on the vote of David O’Byrne, exiled from the party while leader as part of a bitter fight and therefore a very loose unit, in terms of coalition.
There are two possible plays from there. One is to let the Liberals grind on and on. The experience of Jacqui Lambie is their only hope of getting things through which is opposed by the progressive bloc, and there is absolutely no information on how that lot will work. There is no idea which of the 12 of them — three candidates in each seat except Clark — will rise, as Robson’s rotation gave each ticket member a third of the vote. The party has no policies, no stated preferences, its “members” are not bound, and obviously Lambie is not in the Assembly.
Chaos, apparently, which is why Jeremy Rockliff, in his speech on Saturday night, sounded like the English Patient asking for a lethal dose of morphine. That said, Lambie’s federal Senate runs depend on Liberal choices to pick up, so she may well trade support for the Liberals in the Tassie Assembly – under the guise of “common sense” – for choices in 2025.
Realistically, I can’t see Lambie’s team being stable that way, unless Jacqui fed them the zombie cucumber. The more likely outcome is that the Rockliff government will have to fight it through a vote, and that Labor will have to decide whether to hold it, let it fall, try to form a government from among the current members — without taking in non-Labour members as ministers — or ask for another election.
The alternative would be for Labor to allow this to continue not so long, and at some point has the leader announced, because of the chaos created by the Rockliff or whatever government, that things have changed and stability demands a coalition government of Labour, Green. and independents. This is done quickly and efficiently, the Libs slide into opposition, and the coalition parties try to make it work, knowing they have gained some legitimacy due to Liberal failure.
The third road, the one not taken? That Rebecca White misled her own party on Saturday night and said that we will not know the full result for weeks, but it is clear that there will be more clear progressives than Liberals, and we will try to form a Labour-Green-independent group . coalition then, with each group taking ministries.
God, imagine the sudden release of energy and possibility from that! Imagine the sense of determination if White had been seized with that curiosity, and had stared down her colleagues and federal lords. Imagine the sense of sudden clear purpose, the drafting of an initial required programme, with a further process of joint policy development to come.
Suddenly Tasmania would be the place it sometimes is, a place of possibility and fresh thinking. The progressive coalition would create something of a norm of cooperation and dialogue, and begin to push against the other side of Tasmania, the slightly brighter Company attitude. Gwyn would be called a brave hero. If the numbers weren’t there in the final tally, he could gracefully surrender to the Libs. But if they had hit 18, or even 17, he could have gone to the governor with a stable alternative.
Instead, the gray clouds of torpor roll back over. Jeremy Rockcliff doesn’t sound excited or at the start of anything, and why should he? Things are much worse in the Assembly, and dire in the party room, where the Christian right is stalking him, ready for the entry of Premier Abetz — a coup which in itself would prompt possible resignations from the whip. Politically, it will all be relentlessly energetic, providing no real sense of possibility.
One had hoped that the maiden voyage of the new-look Hare-Clark would provide for some sharp announcements in the counting room. Rather, it will emphasize to many the difference between political and social life. A well-deserved boost for the Greens, who are nevertheless a professional outfit. But no new independents, and in the swing seats, the Jacqui Lambie Experience, four lists of ticket-fillers for a party without policies, and whatever happened to Saturday night?
Should Tasmanian Labor try to form a government with the Greens and independents? Let us know what you think by writing to [email protected]. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
