Achi news desk-
The importers are currently expecting a drop in wheat prices due to the approach of the new harvest. According to the analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, there is currently a gap between supply and demand.
“For example, in Bangladesh the demand price for wheat is 280-285 dollars per ton, while the export price of Ukrainian wheat is 295 dollars per ton. This means that the price difference is about 10 dollars. Importers expect further price reductions, as the new harvest is approaching and exchange rates are falling. For example , the prices of Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% ​​fell from $250 per ton to $246-247 per ton. France lowered prices by $23 per ton last week, and Romanian traders on Friday and last Monday lowered prices by 7-10 dollar per ton,” analysts said.
An important factor in the market was Turkey’s ban on wheat imports, which aims to protect the local producer from competition from Ukraine and Russia and will last until October. Turkey is one of the largest grain hubs in the Black Sea, so the ban could have a significant impact on prices, as the country has been a significant importer of grain from Ukraine, Romania and Russia.
Analysts predict that the new crop may put pressure on prices, which will recover closer to autumn.
“In June, the first mowing of the new crop is expected which will lead to an increase in market supply. This may cause prices to fall further, with the potential to drop by $5 per ton each week over the next two weeks. Prices may bottom out at $170-180 per ton on an SRT basis. With However, a gradual increase in prices is expected in the second half of August,” says PUSK.
Experts point out that a shortage of wheat supply is expected in the world market in the new season. According to forecasts, production in the Russian Federation will decrease by 20 million tons, in the European Union – by 10 million tons, and in Ukraine – by 2-3 million tons of export potential. This will affect the market in the months of August – September, when the supply will decrease and prices will start to rise.
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