Achi news desk-
The news article below first appeared as a blog post on the political mapping and visualization platform of the Polimapper website.
Almost nine out of every 10 election candidates who have a realistic chance of winning a seat in the general election have now been chosen.
Research by the interactive geo-advocacy platform, Polimapper, shows that 87% of the “top candidates” were known at the beginning of March.
This is significant because this is the group from which the new cohort of MPs entering the House of Commons for the first time in 2024 will emerge.
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Recently, Rishi Sunak ruled out the possibility of an election in May, stating that it will be held in the second half of the year instead.
Although many commentators point to the opinion polls as the main reason for his delay, the graph below suggests another reason: the Conservatives are behind the other parties in choosing their main candidates.
% of main election candidates selected by political parties on 4 March 2024
At the start of March, the Conservatives had chosen just over three quarters of their main candidates (72 out of 93), while Labor were on almost 90% (194 out of 218) and the Liberal Democrats on 95% (with 42). from 44 selected).
This means logistically that the Conservatives have some catching up to do on their parties before they are ready for a general election.
With a full six months or more before voters go to the polls, organizations that can identify leading candidates are ahead of the curve in trying to engage and build relationships with them before they become MPs.
The upcoming general election is particularly significant because of the scale of change that is about to take place in Westminster.
Brandon Lewis has this week followed Theresa May and 94 other current MPs in stepping down from parliament at the next election.
When this is combined with polling data to calculate the number of seats that could change hands at the next election, the number of new MPs is likely to be higher than the figure of 37% in the 1997 general election, which was the highest in the election. last 50 years.
This has major implications for the next parliament on a wide range of issues, including the possibility of newly elected MPs being parachuted straight into a front bench role.
The composition of select committees and APPGs will be quite different, and the position of the whole parliament on a range of ethical issues, such as assisted dying, could change.
Polimapper has defined primary candidates as those who succeed an existing MP, or Labor candidates who would win a Conservative or SNP seat with a 15% swing.
We also considered the main Lib Dem candidates who would win a Conservative or SNP seat with a 15% swing, and SNP or Plaid Cymru candidates contesting a Conservative or Lib Dem seat where they would win with a 5% swing.
On 4 March 2024, 327 of the top 377 candidates had been selected.
Polimapper is owned by Senate Media Ltd, the political publishing company that also owns Politics.co.uk.
Polimapper’s Candidate Connect product includes nearly 1,800 candidates in total, each with contact information, a brief professional biography, and a swing bracket to give an idea of ​​their chances of winning their seat.
